Commodity allocation under geopolitical fluctuations: Precious metals are bullish at the end of the year, and crude oil supply dislocation will continue (Deutsche Bank)
Deutsche Bank released its commodity outlook.
Deutsche Bank released its commodity outlook. The core change is that its view on global growth resilience and supply construction has turned positive, and it maintains a bearish bias for the US dollar. This means that despite the challenges, there are opportunities in commodity markets. The report made clear judgments on various major categories: precious metals will be limited by the hawkish influence of the Federal Reserve and will rise by the end of the year; industrial metals are under short-term pressure but the structural logic has not changed; the supply dislocation in the crude oil market will continue until the end of the year and then turn to excess. Key data include Deutsche Bank giving specific price forecasts for copper, aluminum, gold, crude oil, etc. from 2026 to 2028. The market may be overly focused on short-term geopolitical and inflationary risks, while ignoring the long-term structural opportunities brought about by Deutsche Bank's emphasis on supply-side "resilience building." One-sentence conclusion: The commodity market is shifting from "macro panic" to "micro supply and demand", and Deutsche Bank's strategic vision focuses on the long-term value of supply bottlenecks rather than short-term price fluctuations. Good/bad: Good for precious metals such as gold and silver; giants with sufficient capital expenditures in the mid-to-upstream crude oil sector; and industrial metals such as copper and aluminum. Market pessimism on energy and industrial metals may partly reflect short-term uncertainty, but the logic of a year-end move higher for precious metals may not be fully priced in. Catalysts: 1) The results and statements of the Federal Reserve's September interest rate meeting, whether there is a dovish turn; 2) OPEC+'s production decisions and changes in global inventory data; 3) PMI data from major global economies, verifying the resilience of economic growth.