Horizon HSD 2.0: Can the “safety first” strategy usher in an “inflection point” in stock prices? (Morgan Stanley)
The core view is that its stock price has been range-bound in the short term, the negative factors have been fully priced in, and new catalysts are needed to trigger an increase.
The core view is that its stock price has been range-bound in the short term, the negative factors have been fully priced in, and new catalysts are needed to trigger an increase. The HSD 2.0 system is described as "Safe Before Sharp", which is stable in most scenes, but has hesitation in complex scenes. The report gives profit forecasts from 2025 to 2028, and points out risks such as the penetration rate of autonomous driving and self-developed hardware by car companies. The market may be disappointed with the slow progress of autonomous driving technology, but Morgan Stanley believes that negative expectations have been fully priced in, and the company's ability to commercialize it (analogous to "Wintel" in the automotive industry) has been underestimated. One-sentence conclusion: Horizon's stock price has been "dehydrated" by the downside risk, and is currently in a value depression where "the negative has been priced in, waiting for positive catalysis." Good/bad: Good for Horizon Robotics (9660.HK) and the entire intelligent driving industry chain. The market's pessimistic expectations of slow technological progress have been basically reflected in the stock price, which is the largest margin of safety. Catalysts: 1) Cooperation progress and targeted announcements with major customers such as Chery; 2) Specific implementation of overseas expansion strategies; 3) Access permits or technological breakthroughs for higher-level autonomous driving systems.