Behind Netflix’s “moderate” Q2 results, concerns about slowing growth deepen, and the long-term outlook requires the expansion of new content (Bernstein)
Bernstein's comments on Netflix (NFLX.US) 2Q26 confirmed each other with Goldman Sachs, but emphasized the deepening of "doubts." Revenue, EBIT, and EPS were basically in line with expectations, but UCAN's revenue fell short of expectations.
Bernstein's comments on Netflix (NFLX.US) 2Q26 confirmed each other with Goldman Sachs, but emphasized the deepening of "doubts." Revenue, EBIT, and EPS were basically in line with expectations, but UCAN's revenue fell short of expectations. More importantly, the narrowing of the revenue guidance range has triggered market speculation about slowing growth, while the guidance of maintaining profit margins of 31.5% has made investors more cautious about growth prospects. The market has certain expectations for Netflix's growth slowdown, but "moderate and lackluster" performance and guidance will amplify the market's pessimism. One-sentence conclusion: Netflix's performance is like a glass of warm water. It doesn't scald people's mouth and makes people uninterested. What the market fears most is not bad news, but "no direction" news, which gives short sellers enough time to weave disappointing stories. Positive/negative: Short-term negative for Netflix (NFLX.US), the stock price may be under pressure due to lack of catalysts. The market has priced in slower growth, but concerns about an inflection point in margin guidance and declining user engagement may be just beginning to grow. Catalysts: 1) Whether the company announces its entry into new tracks such as short and medium videos, linear programs or vertical content; 2) whether the revenue growth of the advertising business can accelerate to make up for the growth gap; 3) whether the net user increase data in the next quarter can exceed expectations.