Q3 DRAM average price will rise more than expected, the storage industry’s upward cycle is confirmed, pay attention to TSMC and ASML guidance (BofA)
The Bank of America report predicts that Q3 DRAM average selling price (ASP) will increase by 21% month-on-month, higher than TrendForce's forecast of 13-18%, with server DRAM increasing by 20-30%.
The Bank of America report predicts that Q3 DRAM average selling price (ASP) will increase by 21% month-on-month, higher than TrendForce's forecast of 13-18%, with server DRAM increasing by 20-30%. DRAM spot prices have risen for eight consecutive weeks, and NAND prices have also recovered well. Q3 NAND ASP is expected to increase by more than 10%. Strong performance and capital expenditure guidance from TSMC and ASML will have a positive impact on the storage industry, as their customers' demand for advanced HBM, SOCAMM and eSSD will increase. The market has already expected a recovery in the storage cycle, but Bank of America's forecast is more optimistic. Q3 ASP growth may exceed market consensus, especially due to the strong demand for server DRAM. One-sentence conclusion: The storage industry is entering a strong upward cycle driven by AI. DRAM and NAND prices may continue to rise faster than expected, and leading companies in the industry will see both profits and valuations increase. Positive/negative: Positive for the global memory chip industry chain, including Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron and related equipment and materials companies. The market has expectations for the recovery of the storage cycle, but may underestimate its sustainability and resilience. Catalysts: 1) The final contract price and spot price trend of Q3 DRAM and NAND; 2) Capital expenditures of equipment manufacturers such as TSMC and ASML, reflecting the confidence of downstream customers in expanding production; 3) AI server procurement plans of downstream cloud service providers (CSP).