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China's property market data weakened across the board in June, and Q3 sales are expected to slow further. It is highlights to select individual stocks (Morgan Stanley)

2026-07-19·ima-daily5min-0719-25-4dd405a091

Street Signal | China's property market data weakened across the board in June, and Q3 sales are expected to slow further. It is highlights to select individual stocks (Morgan Stanley)

Morgan Stanley's China Real Estate Monthly Tracking Report shows that both new and second-hand home sales weakened in June, housing prices continued to decline, second-hand home listings increased, inventory performance varied, and the land market remained sluggish.

The report predicts that Q3 property market sales will further slow down, and the cooling of second-hand home sales will promote an accelerated decline in housing prices, especially in second-tier and lower-tier cities where inventory is rising.

It is highlights that investors choose real estate companies with high-quality self-rescue capabilities such as China Resources Land, C&D International, and Seazen Holdings.

The market has already expected the plight of the real estate industry, but the report shows that the June data may be worse than expected, and the inflection point of industry recovery still needs to wait. One-sentence conclusion: The "Little Indian Summer" of China's real estate market has passed. June data has weakened across the board.

The risk of a second dip in the industry has intensified. It will still take time to rebuild market confidence. Investors should focus on high-quality state-owned enterprises and a few leading private enterprises with stable capital chains.

Positive/negative: It is negative for China's real estate industry as a whole, but it is positive for real estate companies with state-owned enterprise background and stable finances, such as China Resources Land and C&D International, because they can gain more market share in the industry reshuffle.

The market has fully anticipated industry risks, but the differentiated pricing of individual stocks may not be enough. Catalysts:

1) Weekly sales data in key cities in Q3;

2) Debt processing progress and financing status of more real estate companies;

3) Whether the central and local governments will introduce a new round of more powerful stimulus policies.

Full text

China's property market data weakened across the board in June, and Q3 sales are expected to slow further. It is highlights to select individual stocks (Morgan Stanley)

Morgan Stanley's China Real Estate Monthly Tracking Report shows that both new and second-hand home sales weakened in June, housing prices continued to decline, second-hand home listings increased, inventory performance varied, and the land market remained sluggish. The report predicts that Q3 property market sales will further slow down, and the cooling of second-hand home sales will promote an accelerated decline in housing prices, especially in second-tier and lower-tier cities where inventory is rising. It is highlights that investors choose real estate companies with high-quality self-rescue capabilities such as China Resources Land, C&D International, and Seazen Holdings. The market has already expected the plight of the real estate industry, but the report shows that the June data may be worse than expected, and the inflection point of industry recovery still needs to wait. One-sentence conclusion: The "Little Indian Summer" of China's real estate market has passed. June data has weakened across the board. The risk of a second dip in the industry has intensified. It will still take time to rebuild market confidence. Investors should focus on high-quality state-owned enterprises and a few leading private enterprises with stable capital chains. Positive/negative: It is negative for China's real estate industry as a whole, but it is positive for real estate companies with state-owned enterprise background and stable finances, such as China Resources Land and C&D International, because they can gain more market share in the industry reshuffle. The market has fully anticipated industry risks, but the differentiated pricing of individual stocks may not be enough. Catalysts: 1) Weekly sales data in key cities in Q3; 2) Debt processing progress and financing status of more real estate companies; 3) Whether the central and local governments will introduce a new round of more powerful stimulus policies.

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