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Kweichow Moutai’s second round of higher-than-expected price increases in July 2026, further market-oriented reforms, buy (Goldman Sachs)

2026-07-20·ima-daily5min-0720-13-020e8f64a0

Street Signal | Kweichow Moutai’s second round of higher-than-expected price increases in July 2026, further market-oriented reforms, buy (Goldman Sachs)

Goldman Sachs issued a report stating that Kweichow Moutai (600519) conducted a second round of higher-than-expected Feitian Moutai ex-factory price and market highlights retail price increases in July 2026. The report has raised its profit forecast.

It is expected that the revenue in 2026/27/28E will be 178.764 billion/193.636 billion/204.874 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit will be 84.895 billion/92.957 billion/98.917 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 67.79/74.24/78.95 yuan.

The logic behind it is that Moutai's price increase is a continuation of its "Five-Year Plan" for market-oriented reform, which shows that management still has strong pricing power in an environment of weak demand, directly increasing the company's profits.

There have been rumors about price increases in the market, but the magnitude and timing of this price increase (two consecutive price increases within half a year) exceeded expectations.

One-sentence conclusion: Moutai dares to continuously raise prices during a period of weak demand, demonstrating its strong brand moat and management's determination to reform, which will directly increase its performance and is a rare deterministic growth in the current market environment.

Positive/negative: Positive for Kweichow Moutai (600519) and the entire high-end liquor sector. The market has already expected the price increase rumors, but the magnitude and frequency of the price increase exceeded expectations, which is a new positive and has not yet been fully priced in by the market. Catalysts:

1) Channel pricing and terminal sales data after the price increase to verify whether the price increase is transmitted smoothly; 2) 2Q26 real financial report to verify the profit-enhancing effect of the price increase;

3) Whether the company will have other market-oriented reform measures in the future (such as product structure adjustment).

Full text

Kweichow Moutai’s second round of higher-than-expected price increases in July 2026, further market-oriented reforms, buy (Goldman Sachs)

Goldman Sachs issued a report stating that Kweichow Moutai (600519) conducted a second round of higher-than-expected Feitian Moutai ex-factory price and market highlights retail price increases in July 2026. The report has raised its profit forecast. It is expected that the revenue in 2026/27/28E will be 178.764 billion/193.636 billion/204.874 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit will be 84.895 billion/92.957 billion/98.917 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 67.79/74.24/78.95 yuan. The logic behind it is that Moutai's price increase is a continuation of its "Five-Year Plan" for market-oriented reform, which shows that management still has strong pricing power in an environment of weak demand, directly increasing the company's profits. There have been rumors about price increases in the market, but the magnitude and timing of this price increase (two consecutive price increases within half a year) exceeded expectations. One-sentence conclusion: Moutai dares to continuously raise prices during a period of weak demand, demonstrating its strong brand moat and management's determination to reform, which will directly increase its performance and is a rare deterministic growth in the current market environment. Positive/negative: Positive for Kweichow Moutai (600519) and the entire high-end liquor sector. The market has already expected the price increase rumors, but the magnitude and frequency of the price increase exceeded expectations, which is a new positive and has not yet been fully priced in by the market. Catalysts: 1) Channel pricing and terminal sales data after the price increase to verify whether the price increase is transmitted smoothly; 2) 2Q26 real financial report to verify the profit-enhancing effect of the price increase; 3) Whether the company will have other market-oriented reform measures in the future (such as product structure adjustment).

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