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China's beer industry: Judging from the Yanjing Exchange, SKU performance differentiation has intensified, and the high-end process has become divergent (Goldman Sachs)

2026-07-20·ima-daily5min-0720-16-38a50d7898

Street Signal | China's beer industry: Judging from the Yanjing Exchange, SKU performance differentiation has intensified, and the high-end process has become divergent (Goldman Sachs)

Goldman Sachs concluded from its investor communications with Yanjing Beer that the performance of key SKUs in China’s beer industry is experiencing significant differentiation. The report reveals this trend by comparing the performance forecasts of CR Beer, Budweiser Asia Pacific (Bud APAC), Tsingtao Beer, and Chongqing Beer in 2Q26.

For example, China Resources Beer's overall revenue in 1H26 is expected to increase by 3.4%, but Budweiser Asia Pacific China is expected to decline by 4.4%.

The logic behind it is that under the trend of consumption downgrade, high-end products (such as Budweiser) have been greatly affected, while mid-range and mainstream products have performed relatively steadily.

The market has expectations for consumption downgrade, but the degree of performance differentiation between different brands and different SKUs may exceed market expectations, which will be the key to future investment decisions. One sentence conclusion: The high-endization of China's beer industry is not smooth sailing.

The downgrade of consumption has led to serious differentiation in the performance of various brands and SKUs. Investments need to select targets with core product capabilities and channel advantages.

Positive/negative: Positive for China Resources Beer (0291.HK) (because its product portfolio is more focused on mid-range), negative for Budweiser Asia Pacific (1876.HK) (because its high-end products are more affected). The market has anticipated an overall slowdown in the industry, but differentiation among brands may not yet be fully priced in.

Catalysts: 1) 2Q26 financial reports of major beer companies (China Resources, Budweiser, Tsingtao Brewery), verifying changes in sales volume and product structure;

2) Summer sales and terminal price data;

3) Price trends of main raw materials (barley).

Full text

China's beer industry: Judging from the Yanjing Exchange, SKU performance differentiation has intensified, and the high-end process has become divergent (Goldman Sachs)

Goldman Sachs concluded from its investor communications with Yanjing Beer that the performance of key SKUs in China’s beer industry is experiencing significant differentiation.

Goldman Sachs concluded from its investor communications with Yanjing Beer that the performance of key SKUs in China’s beer industry is experiencing significant differentiation. The report reveals this trend by comparing the performance forecasts of CR Beer, Budweiser Asia Pacific (Bud APAC), Tsingtao Beer, and Chongqing Beer in 2Q26. For example, China Resources Beer's overall revenue in 1H26 is expected to increase by 3.4%, but Budweiser Asia Pacific China is expected to decline by 4.4%. The logic behind it is that under the trend of consumption downgrade, high-end products (such as Budweiser) have been greatly affected, while mid-range and mainstream products have performed relatively steadily. The market has expectations for consumption downgrade, but the degree of performance differentiation between different brands and different SKUs may exceed market expectations, which will be the key to future investment decisions. One sentence conclusion: The high-endization of China's beer industry is not smooth sailing. The downgrade of consumption has led to serious differentiation in the performance of various brands and SKUs. Investments need to select targets with core product capabilities and channel advantages. Positive/negative: Positive for China Resources Beer (0291.HK) (because its product portfolio is more focused on mid-range), negative for Budweiser Asia Pacific (1876.HK) (because its high-end products are more affected). The market has anticipated an overall slowdown in the industry, but differentiation among brands may not yet be fully priced in. Catalysts: 1) 2Q26 financial reports of major beer companies (China Resources, Budweiser, Tsingtao Brewery), verifying changes in sales volume and product structure; 2) Summer sales and terminal price data; 3) Price trends of main raw materials (barley).

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