After the release of Kimi K 3, the market predicted that the probability of Anthropic's valuation reaching $1.5 trillion at the end of the year fell by 11 percentage points; Goldman Sachs
| Monday, July 20, 2026 | After the release of NO.1 KimiK3, the market forecast that Anthropic's year-end valuation will reach US$1.5 trillion fell by 11 percentage points. On July 17, local time, data from the prediction platform Polymarket showed that after the release of the KimiK3 large model in The Dark Side of the Moon, the market's expectations for Anthropic's year-end valuation to reach US$1.5 trillion have significantly cooled down, and the related prediction probability has dropped to 67%, down 11 percentage points from before.
| Monday, July 20, 2026 | After the release of NO.1 Kimi K3, market predictions that Anthropic’s valuation will reach US$1.5 trillion by the end of the year fell by 11 percentage points. On July 17, local time, data from the prediction platform Polymarket showed that after the release of the Kimi K3 large model on Dark Side of the Moon, the market’s expectations for Anthropic’s valuation at the end of the year to reach US$1.5 trillion have significantly cooled down, and the relevant prediction probability has dropped to 67%, down 11 percentage points from the previous time. After the release of Kimi K3, with its strong model performance and open source strategy, it attracted market attention to the global AI large model competition landscape. Comment: The continuous emergence of high-performance open source models is prompting the market to re-evaluate the competitive advantages and valuation space of leading AI companies, and competition in the AI industry is further intensifying. NO.2 SpaceX plans to test the "Starship" rocket again on July 23 On July 19, local time, SpaceX stated that it planned to try to launch the "Starship" rocket again on July 23. Previously, the 13th test flight of the "Starship" on July 16, local time, was automatically suspended during the ignition stage due to the failure of some engines to start. This was originally SpaceX's first "Starship" launch mission after it went public in June this year. After the test flight was canceled, the company's market value was wiped out by about US$100 billion. Comment: The progress of the "Starship" test flight is not only related to the advancement of SpaceX's aerospace project, but will also affect the market's expectations of its technical strength and commercialization prospects. NO.3 Protests against the construction of AI data centers broke out in many places in the United States On July 19, local time, protests against the construction of AI data centers were held in at least 125 locations in the United States. This was the first time the United States launched a nationwide coordinated action against the construction of data centers. Protesters believe that large-scale data center construction may push up electricity prices, increase water consumption and cause environmental pollution, and criticize the lack of transparency in some project approvals. Data shows that by the end of 2025, more than 1,400 AI data centers have been built or approved for construction in the United States. Since this year, at least 75 data center projects in the United States have been postponed or canceled, involving an investment of more than US$130 billion. Comment: AI infrastructure construction is facing increasing community and regulatory pressure. Data center approval, energy supply and environmental impact may become important variables for industry expansion. NO.4 Goldman Sachs: AI model’s price per million tokens has fallen by more than 90% in the past 30 months On July 19, local time, venture capital institution Andreessen Horowitz cited Goldman Sachs research data and stated that the price index per million Tokens of mainstream large language models has dropped by more than 90% in the past 30 months compared with the beginning of 2022, and the quality-adjusted price drop has been even greater. At the same time, Goldman Sachs predicts that AI capital expenditures by global hyperscale cloud service providers will reach US$757 billion in 2026, and the cumulative investment scale may reach US$5.5 trillion by 2030. Comment: The continued decline in the cost of AI models is expected to accelerate the popularization of applications, but it will also intensify industry competition and push the market to pay more attention to the commercialization capabilities and investment returns of AI companies. NO.5 Oracle AI data center construction is blocked, environmental approvals push up costs On July 18, local time, according to media reports, Oracle’s $16.5 billion AI data center project in New Mexico, USA, was blocked due to environmental approvals. It was forced to change the original natural gas power generation plan to fuel cell power supply, which is expected to increase the cost by billions of dollars. At the same time, the company's data center project in Wisconsin also faced more than $100 million in additional expenses due to regulatory rulings. Previously, S&P Global had lowered Oracle's long-term issuer credit rating to just one notch above investment grade, believing that it continued to underestimate the scale of capital expenditures. Comment: As the construction of AI data centers accelerates, hidden costs such as environmental protection approvals, energy supporting facilities, and regulatory compliance are becoming important challenges for technology giants to expand their investment in computing power.