Pre-market: Nasdaq futures rose 1.08%, chip ETF rebounded 2%
The market tentatively stabilized at the start of the week after chip stocks sold off and fell into bear market territory. Investors will be watching earnings reports from major technology companies to determine whether market volatility will persist or whether upward momentum will return. Meanwhile, Brent crude gave up early gains on Monday after Iranian diplomats signaled talks. As of press time, Dow futures were up 0.48%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.59%, and Nasdaq futures were up 1.08%. European stocks fluctuated between slight gains and losses, with the pan-European STOXX 600 index essentially flat. Germany's DAX index rose 0.1%; France's CAC 40 index rose 0.1%; Italy's FTSE MIB index was basically unchanged; Spain's IBEX 35 index rose 0.2%. The AEX index in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, rose 0.25%, with ASML rising 0.9%. Britain's FTSE 100 index still fell 0.4%. The market re-evaluates the global AI competitive landscape The benchmark index of Asian stocks fell 0.2%. South Korea's KOSPI index continued to be under pressure, falling about 4.1%. It comes after the index plunged nearly 9% last week amid wild swings as retail investors were forced out of highly leveraged positions. Japanese markets were closed for a public holiday. Chip investors are still digesting the impact of Chinese AI company Moonshot AI (Dark Side of the Moon) last Friday. The company said that the performance of its latest open source model Kimi K3 is close to Fable, the top model of American AI giant Anthropic, triggering the market to re-evaluate the global AI competition landscape. Group Holdings Ltd shares rose after the company released a preview version of its latest flagship artificial intelligence model. Investors are still assessing the impact of Chinese startup Moonshot AI’s latest breakthrough and re-judge the winners and losers in this event. Although models such as Moonshot AI's Kimi K3 are designed to improve the efficiency of computing resource usage, running such artificial intelligence models still requires a large amount of memory chip resources. The 100 Index is expected to end its previous three consecutive days of decline, with index futures rising: 1.1%. S&P 500 futures rose 0.6%. Exchange-traded funds tracking chip companies rebounded 2% in U.S. premarket trading. Joachim Klement, head of strategy at Panmure Liberum, said: "Despite the setback in the technology sector last week, investor sentiment remains positive, which is conducive to the market regaining stability this week." Alphabet will kick off its quarterly earnings report for AI hyperscale cloud service providers on Wednesday. When this financial report was released, chip stocks had fallen into bear market territory. The Philadelphia Chip Index fell by about 10% last week, and has fallen by about 20% from its all-time high set in June. Chip companies have previously been one of the biggest drivers of the S&P 500's rise in 2026, but the market is concerned about whether companies like Alphabet can continue to invest huge sums of money in building global AI infrastructure. Andrea Gabellone, global head of equities at KBC Securities, said last week's sharp pullback will not drive a lot of funds to buy dips for the time being, because "July is usually a weaker month for momentum trading." He said: "This week, we are waiting for the results of hyperscale cloud service providers, especially their commercialization capabilities and capital expenditure plans. This may help market sentiment return to calm." Tech giants’ financial reports are coming Highlights this week: Alphabet ( Waiting for corporate quarterly results. Analyst Savita Subramanian is still optimistic about corporate earnings prospects, predicting that corporate earnings will be about 5% higher than market expectations and a year-on-year increase of about 28%. Among them, the technology industry is expected to contribute more than half of the profit growth, and the chip industry profit is expected to increase by about 130% year-on-year. Iran signals negotiation In commodities markets, signs that diplomatic efforts to end conflicts in the Middle East are continuing helped crude oil prices give up early gains. Previously, a series of tit-for-tat attacks between the United States and Iran pushed oil prices higher, but benchmark crude prices have since fallen back and are now essentially flat around $88 a barrel.
Brent crude oil prices topped $90 a barrel for the first time in more than a month as the U.S. military launched a ninth consecutive day of attacks on Iran and Iran launched counterattacks against targets in the region. Only a handful of ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, with Iran claiming to have hit two vessels. However, a spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry said that Iran can continue negotiations with the United States if it is in the national interest. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei emphasized that "it does not make sense to regard negotiation and war as an alternative." He said that "diplomacy does not mean giving up defense" and "defensive actions do not conflict with diplomatic efforts." He also added that Iran has received proposals from multiple mediators to resume negotiations. Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets, said: "Trump's support for expanding military action against Iran has heightened market concerns that the conflict may last longer or exceed the scope of the initial targets." He pointed out that Trump's comments are very important for oil prices because any escalation that occurs near production facilities, export terminals or key shipping routes could lead to a reduction in the supply of crude oil in the global market, and oil-producing countries cannot immediately replenish the gap. In the European market, natural gas prices are also of concern. European benchmark natural gas prices exceeded 60 euros/MWh for the first time since mid-March. Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP Investment Management, said: "The longer the Strait of Hormuz is closed and the more the war escalates, the more likely it is that oil prices will need to rise to about $150 a barrel to match the supply damage by driving down demand. This is not our baseline scenario, but risks are rising again." Rising fuel prices have reignited concerns about inflation. Previously, U.S. consumer price data released last week was lower than expected, which temporarily eased market pressure, but now the futures market has begun to price in at least one interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve before the end of this year. European and American bond yields rise The change pushed yields higher. Bond yields rose slightly in the U.S. and much of Europe. However, the risk of price pressures that may arise from the conflict remains a concern as U.S. gasoline prices climb back above $4 a gallon. The benchmark 10-year Treasury bond yield in the United States rose to 4.55%, and the 30-year Treasury bond yield once again broke through the psychologically important 5% mark. This level typically attracts capital flows from equity markets into fixed-income assets, while raising the valuation threshold companies need to reach to make future profits. Meanwhile, money markets are raising expectations for further tightening by the European Central Bank. The market expects that the European Central Bank may raise interest rates again in September, and believes that the probability of another interest rate hike before the end of the year reaches 80%. This expectation pushed the yield on Germany's highly policy-sensitive two-year government bonds to 2.817% on Monday, the highest level in two years. Skylar Montgomery Koning, a macro strategist at Bloomberg, said: "While today's news looks more positive, U.S.-Iran negotiations have been moving in the wrong direction in the past few weeks. Transportation in the Strait of Hormuz has basically stalled, and energy infrastructure has also been attacked. This will put pressure on the bond market." The U.S. dollar fluctuated and had limited reaction to the escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran. The euro remained near $1.1442 against the dollar; the dollar was essentially flat against the yen, at 162.36 yen. Analysts at Monex Europe said in a report: "This is partly because the market has now become more comfortable with the risks posed by energy supply disruptions." They believe that with the U.S. economy likely to slow down in the coming months, a modest correction in the dollar "is reasonable." The pound continues to strengthen as Andy Burnham is set to become the UK's seventh prime minister in a decade. Sterling rose 0.17% against the dollar to $1.3475; against the euro it rose to 84.91 pence. Traders are reducing previously established short positions on sterling as the UK leadership transition proceeds quickly and relatively smoothly. Assets such as gold and Bitcoin also showed similar small fluctuations.
Group (MUFG) analyst Soojin Kim said: "Recent gold price trends show that market concerns about 'higher interest rates for longer' are offsetting the support of gold's traditional safe-haven attributes. Despite the escalating geopolitical risks, gold still generally maintains range-bound volatility." Banks: The AI craze has pushed up individual stock volatility, but overall market risks are controllable. Jitesh Kumar, a strategist at Societe Generale, pointed out that although the AI investment cycle may continue to push up individual stock volatility, the macroeconomic environment is still supportive of the stock market. The bank believes that resilient economic growth, a strong labor market and proactive fiscal policies continue to limit the overall downward risks to the market. Investors are increasingly distinguishing individual corporate winners from losers, a trend that is driving up volatility in individual stocks while pushing correlations between stocks to historically low levels. The report advises investors that market leadership may continue to be concentrated in AI-related companies rather than at the broad-based index level. While technical risks such as leveraged ETF activity and crowded positions could trigger intermittent spikes in volatility, Societe Generale expects such fluctuations to be transitory unless economic fundamentals deteriorate significantly. Wall Street is betting that U.S. stocks may face a "storm of high volatility" in the summer. Momentum trades fueled by rising stocks are losing steam and upbeat earnings estimates are coming under harsh scrutiny, both signs that markets could be heading for higher volatility this summer. Index volatility is gradually rising as investors face increasing risk factors that challenge the overall bullish view. The crowded AI-related transactions are experiencing a violent reversal, triggering a large-scale capital rotation. In addition, while markets remain calm about rising geopolitical tensions, a further escalation would put pressure on the generally expected dovish monetary policy view. At the same time, market demand for risk hedging instruments is growing rapidly. The Nations SkewDex index - which measures the difference in cost between out-of-the-money puts and precisely at-the-money options on the S&P 500's most liquid exchange-traded funds (ETFs), has risen to its highest level since April - which could push other volatility measures higher. SpaceX announced that it would adjust its Starship rocket launch test plan to Thursday, and its stock price rose by more than 1%. Last week, the Starship's launch mission was temporarily suspended due to engine failure. Alibaba rose more than 3% as the company pre-released a new high-performance large model - Tongyi Qianwen 3.8 Max. Alibaba claims that the overall strength of this model is second only to the Fable 5 model owned by AI giant Anthropic. Domino's Pizza reported second-quarter earnings that fell short of market expectations, but its stock price still rose more than 7.5%. The financial report showed that its revenue slightly exceeded estimates; the company's CEO said that both the takeout and in-store pickup orders have achieved considerable growth. Energy infrastructure company Hut 8 Corp surged 12%. The company signed a 15-year lease contract with an existing customer, and its Beacon Point data center in Texas with an installed capacity of 1 GW has achieved 100% commercial implementation. The total contract value is as high as $9.8 billion. After a week of sharp declines, a number of chip stocks have rebounded. The chip ETF product iShares Semiconductor ETF (code: SOXX) fell 10% last week, and rose more than 2% in pre-market trading this week; in terms of individual stocks: Chaowei ( ) rose 3.5%, Technology rose more than 4%, with Marvell Technology and Intel closing up 2.5% simultaneously. The ratings of Yeti Holdings and Urban Outfitters were upgraded to "buy," driving their stock prices higher. Analyst opinion: Optimistic about Urban Outfitters' management's stable year-on-year revenue performance and fulfillment of profit targets; at the same time, it believes that both Yeti's classic product lines and new business lines have growth potential, with both stocks rising by more than 4.5%. Open a futures account on Sina's cooperative platform, safe, fast and guaranteed
Brent crude oil prices topped $90 a barrel for the first time in more than a month as the U.S. military launched a ninth consecutive day of attacks on Iran and Iran launched counterattacks against targets in the region. Only a handful of ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, with Iran claiming to have hit two vessels. However, a spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry said that Iran can continue negotiations with the United States if it is in the national interest. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei emphasized that "it does not make sense to regard negotiation and war as an alternative." He said that "diplomacy does not mean giving up defense" and "defensive actions do not conflict with diplomatic efforts." He also added that Iran has received proposals from multiple mediators to resume negotiations. Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets, said: "Trump's support for expanding military action against Iran has heightened market concerns that the conflict may last longer or exceed the scope of the initial targets." He pointed out that Trump's comments are very important for oil prices because any escalation that occurs near production facilities, export terminals or key shipping routes could lead to a reduction in the supply of crude oil in the global market, and oil-producing countries cannot immediately replenish the gap. In the European market, natural gas prices are also of concern. European benchmark natural gas prices exceeded 60 euros/MWh for the first time since mid-March. Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP Investment Management, said: "The longer the Strait of Hormuz is closed and the more the war escalates, the more likely it is that oil prices will need to rise to about $150 a barrel to match the supply damage by driving down demand. This is not our baseline scenario, but risks are rising again." Rising fuel prices have reignited concerns about inflation. Previously, U.S. consumer price data released last week was lower than expected, which temporarily eased market pressure, but now the futures market has begun to price in at least one interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve before the end of this year. European and American bond yields rise The change pushed yields higher. Bond yields rose slightly in the U.S. and much of Europe. However, the risk of price pressures that may arise from the conflict remains a concern as U.S. gasoline prices climb back above $4 a gallon. The benchmark 10-year Treasury bond yield in the United States rose to 4.55%, and the 30-year Treasury bond yield once again broke through the psychologically important 5% mark. This level typically attracts capital flows from equity markets into fixed-income assets, while raising the valuation threshold companies need to reach to make future profits. Meanwhile, money markets are raising expectations for further tightening by the European Central Bank. The market expects that the European Central Bank may raise interest rates again in September, and believes that the probability of another interest rate hike before the end of the year reaches 80%. This expectation pushed the yield on Germany's highly policy-sensitive two-year government bonds to 2.817% on Monday, the highest level in two years. Skylar Montgomery Koning, a macro strategist at Bloomberg, said: "While today's news looks more positive, U.S.-Iran negotiations have been moving in the wrong direction in the past few weeks. Transportation in the Strait of Hormuz has basically stalled, and energy infrastructure has also been attacked. This will put pressure on the bond market." The U.S. dollar fluctuated and had limited reaction to the escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran. The euro remained near $1.1442 against the dollar; the dollar was essentially flat against the yen, at 162.36 yen. Analysts at Monex Europe said in a report: "This is partly because the market has now become more comfortable with the risks posed by energy supply disruptions." They believe that with the U.S. economy likely to slow down in the coming months, a modest correction in the dollar "is reasonable." The pound continues to strengthen as Andy Burnham is set to become the UK's seventh prime minister in a decade. Sterling rose 0.17% against the dollar to $1.3475; against the euro it rose to 84.91 pence. Traders are reducing previously established short positions on sterling as the UK leadership transition proceeds quickly and relatively smoothly. Assets such as gold and Bitcoin also showed similar small fluctuations.
Group (MUFG) analyst Soojin Kim said: "Recent gold price trends show that market concerns about 'higher interest rates for longer' are offsetting the support of gold's traditional safe-haven attributes. Despite the escalating geopolitical risks, gold still generally maintains range-bound volatility." Banks: The AI craze has pushed up individual stock volatility, but overall market risks are controllable. Jitesh Kumar, a strategist at Societe Generale, pointed out that although the AI investment cycle may continue to push up individual stock volatility, the macroeconomic environment is still supportive of the stock market. The bank believes that resilient economic growth, a strong labor market and proactive fiscal policies continue to limit the overall downward risks to the market. Investors are increasingly distinguishing individual corporate winners from losers, a trend that is driving up volatility in individual stocks while pushing correlations between stocks to historically low levels. The report advises investors that market leadership may continue to be concentrated in AI-related companies rather than at the broad-based index level. While technical risks such as leveraged ETF activity and crowded positions could trigger intermittent spikes in volatility, Societe Generale expects such fluctuations to be transitory unless economic fundamentals deteriorate significantly. Wall Street is betting that U.S. stocks may face a "storm of high volatility" in the summer. Momentum trades fueled by rising stocks are losing steam and upbeat earnings estimates are coming under harsh scrutiny, both signs that markets could be heading for higher volatility this summer. Index volatility is gradually rising as investors face increasing risk factors that challenge the overall bullish view. The crowded AI-related transactions are experiencing a violent reversal, triggering a large-scale capital rotation. In addition, while markets remain calm about rising geopolitical tensions, a further escalation would put pressure on the generally expected dovish monetary policy view. At the same time, market demand for risk hedging instruments is growing rapidly. The Nations SkewDex index - which measures the difference in cost between out-of-the-money puts and precisely at-the-money options on the S&P 500's most liquid exchange-traded funds (ETFs), has risen to its highest level since April - which could push other volatility measures higher. SpaceX announced that it would adjust its Starship rocket launch test plan to Thursday, and its stock price rose by more than 1%. Last week, the Starship's launch mission was temporarily suspended due to engine failure. Alibaba rose more than 3% as the company pre-released a new high-performance large model - Tongyi Qianwen 3.8 Max. Alibaba claims that the overall strength of this model is second only to the Fable 5 model owned by AI giant Anthropic. Domino's Pizza reported second-quarter earnings that fell short of market expectations, but its stock price still rose more than 7.5%. The financial report showed that its revenue slightly exceeded estimates; the company's CEO said that both the takeout and in-store pickup orders have achieved considerable growth. Energy infrastructure company Hut 8 Corp surged 12%. The company signed a 15-year lease contract with an existing customer, and its Beacon Point data center in Texas with an installed capacity of 1 GW has achieved 100% commercial implementation. The total contract value is as high as $9.8 billion. After a week of sharp declines, a number of chip stocks have rebounded. The chip ETF product iShares Semiconductor ETF (code: SOXX) fell 10% last week, and rose more than 2% in pre-market trading this week; in terms of individual stocks: Chaowei ( ) rose 3.5%, Technology rose more than 4%, with Marvell Technology and Intel closing up 2.5% simultaneously. The ratings of Yeti Holdings and Urban Outfitters were upgraded to "buy," driving their stock prices higher. Analyst opinion: Optimistic about Urban Outfitters' management's stable year-on-year revenue performance and fulfillment of profit targets; at the same time, it believes that both Yeti's classic product lines and new business lines have growth potential, with both stocks rising by more than 4.5%. Open a futures account on Sina's cooperative platform, safe, fast and guaranteed