Goldman Sachs: AI sector volatility intensifies, three main lines guide market outlook
The volatility of artificial intelligence-related stocks has increased significantly recently. The report states that three major trends are reshaping the investment logic of the AI sector and recommends that investors focus on the upcoming earnings season for direction. After 18 months of strong gains, AI concept stocks have experienced sharp swings in recent weeks. The stock price of chip giant Nvidia has retraced more than 20% from its high point. Semiconductor companies such as , Broadcom and others are also under pressure, and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF fell nearly 9% last week. Market concerns about the payback cycle of AI infrastructure investments, the sustainability of corporate capital expenditures, and valuation levels are rising. In a strategy note released on Monday, Goldman Sachs analysts identified three trends worth watching: First, AI investment is spreading from the “infrastructure” level to the “application” level. Chip companies that benefited from the expansion of computing power in the early stages are facing higher base pressure, while software and Internet companies that use AI to improve business efficiency may become the winners in the next stage. The report points out that the market is re-evaluating which companies can truly turn AI capabilities into revenue growth. Second, the battle between open source and closed source for large models is affecting the industrial chain structure. Goldman Sachs believes that the advancement of open source models may change the distribution of industry pricing power. Leading companies that rely on proprietary technology will face competitive pressure, while small and medium-sized developers and enterprise users are expected to obtain advanced AI capabilities at a lower cost. Third, the impact of geopolitical factors on the AI sector is rising. The situation in the Middle East has pushed up energy prices, which may inhibit the willingness of technology companies to spend capital. At the same time, U.S. regulatory authorities continue to pay increasing attention to the AI industry, and potential policy intervention poses uncertainty. Goldman Sachs strategists reminded that internal rotation and fund transfers in the AI sector have accelerated significantly in the past month, and the "chasing the rise and killing the fall" strategy faces greater risks. Investors are advised to base their stock selection on the actual profitability of the company and the growth rate of AI business revenue. Technology giants such as Alphabet and Meta will release quarterly financial reports one after another, and the market is paying close attention to the scale of investment of these companies in AI infrastructure and the revenue returns they bring. The performance of chip manufacturers such as Nvidia and AMD has also become the focus. Goldman Sachs said that if the financial report shows an improvement in corporate AI investment returns, the sector is expected to regain upward momentum; if capital expenditures continue to grow but revenue does not match the growth rate, market concerns about the AI bubble may further escalate, triggering a new round of selling.