Late trading: Dow down more than 200 points, S&P essentially flat
In the early morning of July 21, Beijing time, U.S. stocks were mixed in late trading on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling more than 200 points. Basically the same. Chipmaker shares were broadly higher, providing a boost for the Nasdaq and S&P 500. Crude oil prices fell after Iran released a signal for negotiations. The Dow fell 207.68 points, or 0.40%, to 51938.74 points; the S&P 500 rose 6.14 points, or 0.08%, to 7463.83 points; the Nasdaq rose 89.521 points, or 0.35%, to 25609.764 points. The United States launched a ninth consecutive day of strikes against Iran overnight, but investor sentiment improved after Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei raised hopes of a diplomatic solution after midnight ET on Monday. Baghayi told reporters that intermediaries continued to exchange information with Iran during the latest round of U.S. strikes, adding that negotiations between the two rivals could proceed based on national interests. Oil prices fell sharply in early trading on Monday, reversing their previous strong gains. Although the Middle East suffered a new round of air strikes over the weekend, reports that the United States and Iran proposed a 10-day ceasefire triggered a sharp fall in energy prices. In early trading, oil prices rose to a one-month high as the exchange of fire between the United States and Iran further disrupted the restoration of crude oil supply. When the two sides reached a memorandum of understanding last month, the market had widely expected that supply would gradually resume. After giving up gains, oil prices continued to fall. According to Iranian sources, one proposal proposes a 10-day ceasefire period to promote the restoration of the interim peace agreement reached last month. Brent crude oil (BRN00) (BRNU26), the global benchmark for September delivery, fell 1.6% to $86.67 a barrel, after rising as much as 3.8% to hit an intraday high of $91.42 a barrel. However, Brent crude oil is still more than $16 above the low reached in June when the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The West Texas Intermediate crude oil contract for August delivery (CL.1) (CLQ26) also reversed sharply lower. U.S. benchmark oil prices were last down 2.2% at just under $80 a barrel, after climbing to a high of $86.40 a barrel. "Traders have pared back some of the geopolitical risk premium that has been built into prices recently," said Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com. "While the conflict is far from resolved, the prospect of resuming negotiations eases immediate concerns about further disruptions to oil supplies and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz." Previously, the U.S. military announced a ninth consecutive night of air strikes on Sunday night, saying: "The air strikes will continue to weaken Iran's military capabilities to attack commercial ships and civilian sailors in the Strait of Hormuz." Stephen Innes, managing partner of SPI Asset Management, believes that the modest decline in oil prices "does not mean that the market is letting down its guard," but that "investors still view this conflict as an event that they are aware of and believe they can isolate." He said the new round of hostilities was "primarily priced by markets as an oil, inflation and regional risk event rather than the beginning of a systemic shock". "Investors continue to believe that Trump is not willing to tolerate a substantial escalation of the U.S. military posture in the Middle East (i.e. the deployment of ground troops), and if that is the case, then some form of diplomatic resolution is inevitable," Vital Knowledge's Adam Crisafulli wrote. Chipmakers provided buying support for U.S. stocks as they try to recoup some of last week's sharp losses. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) rose more than 2%. Technology led the gains, rising more than 5%. Astera Labs, Both rose by more than 3%. In terms of economic data on Monday, according to comprehensive monthly economic indicator data, U.S. leading economic indicators fell slightly in June due to weaker consumer spending. The Leading Economic Index (LEI) released by the Conference Board, a research organization, fell 0.2% to 99.1 in June, after rising 0.1% in May and 0.2% in April.
The Conference Board said that while gains in the first two months were partially retracted, the index fell only 0.3% in the first half of 2026 and contracted 1.1% in the second half of 2025. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of the Conference Board, said that some sub-indicators of the index have not changed much. The largest positive contribution comes from the yield spread, followed by a weak positive contribution in the financial sub-indicators. Zabinska-La Monica said the contributions were not enough to offset the negative impact of weak consumer expectations and falling building permits. The index's six-month and 12-month growth rates were also negative but remained stable. Consumer spending is weakening, but strong artificial intelligence investment by companies is expected to support economic activity while inflation improves. The LEI is designed as a predictive index. It is based on 10 sub-indicators, including new orders from manufacturers, new private residential construction permits, stock prices and consumer expectations, and is designed to signal shifts in the business cycle.
The Conference Board said that while gains in the first two months were partially retracted, the index fell only 0.3% in the first half of 2026 and contracted 1.1% in the second half of 2025. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of the Conference Board, said that some sub-indicators of the index have not changed much. The largest positive contribution comes from the yield spread, followed by a weak positive contribution in the financial sub-indicators. Zabinska-La Monica said the contributions were not enough to offset the negative impact of weak consumer expectations and falling building permits. The index's six-month and 12-month growth rates were also negative but remained stable. Consumer spending is weakening, but strong artificial intelligence investment by companies is expected to support economic activity while inflation improves. The LEI is designed as a predictive index. It is based on 10 sub-indicators, including new orders from manufacturers, new private residential construction permits, stock prices and consumer expectations, and is designed to signal shifts in the business cycle.