AI applications reduce net jobs by 5% a year, but bring about a nearly 10% productivity increase, benefiting banks and semiconductors (Morgan Stanley)
Morgan Stanley's AlphaWise survey shows that the promotion of AI has caused an average of 5% net job losses in five industries in the past 12 months, but it has also promoted a 9.6% productivity increase.
Morgan Stanley's AlphaWise survey shows that the promotion of AI has caused an average of 5% net job losses in five industries in the past 12 months, but it has also promoted a 9.6% productivity increase. The banking industry, technology hardware, and semiconductor industries have become net beneficiaries of AI applications, while the software and professional services industries need to rely on proprietary data and workflow to form differentiation. The market has always been worried about AI "replacing jobs", but this report provides a more balanced perspective: while AI reduces some jobs, it also significantly improves overall efficiency and creates new jobs. The core logic is that "process density" rather than "front-end replacement" is the main driving force for current AI applications. One-sentence conclusion: AI's impact on employment is a coexistence of "substitution and creation". While leading to net job losses, it also brings significant productivity improvements. Industries such as banking and semiconductors are net beneficiaries, while the software industry faces greater transformation pressure. Advantages/disadvantages: Advantages for industry leaders with high "process density" and AI application capabilities, such as banks and semiconductors. It poses a challenge to software and professional services companies, and they need to focus on how to achieve differentiation through data and AI. Catalysts: 1) Specific disclosures about the impact of AI on costs, efficiency and headcount in each company's 2026 third quarter results meeting; 2) layoff announcements and AI-related recruitment plans from large technology companies.