The Nikkei rebounds, but AI semiconductor stocks have yet to return to leadership (J.P. Morgan)
J.P.
J.P. Morgan Japan Quantitative Strategy Report pointed out that the Nikkei Index rebounded sharply, but AI semiconductor-related stocks still have a long way to go before returning to the market's leading position. The market's unilateral pessimism has eased, and CTA's stop-loss selling pressure has passed its worst stage. However, the buying power of high-beta/high-momentum stocks is still limited, and the market is in a wait-and-see mode before the release of financial reports of major global AI companies. The market simply interprets the Nikkei rebound as the return of AI stocks, but in fact the rebound is more about emotional restoration and technical buying. AI semiconductors need more catalysts to lead the rally. One-sentence conclusion: The rebound in the Japanese market is technical, not trend-based. AI semiconductor stocks have not yet regained their dominance. The market is waiting for the next catalyst (such as Nvidia's earnings report). The risk of chasing AI stocks higher is higher. Pros/Cons: Neutral. The overall market pessimism has eased, but the leading position of AI semiconductor stocks has not yet been established. Investors should remain cautious and wait for clearer signals. Catalysts: 1) Financial reports of major global AI companies (such as Nvidia); 2) Whether investment interest in oversold stocks has significantly expanded; 3) Japanese domestic macro data and policy changes.