China's logistics and express delivery industry has entered the "quality-driven" recovery stage, with Manbang and Jitu leading the way (J.P. Morgan)
The J.P.
The J.P. Morgan report pointed out that China's logistics, express delivery and e-commerce industries are in the incremental quality-driven recovery stage. Anti-involution measures have promoted the rationalization of industry pricing and continued restoration of profit margins. YMM (Manbang Group) and J&T (Jitu Express) became the preferred investment targets, followed by ZTO Express, JD Logistics and SF Express Holdings. The 2Q26 performance expectations of major companies are divided, and the profit growth of leading companies is strong. Market concerns about "price wars" in the express delivery industry may be fading, and the industry is shifting from "volume for price" to a sustainable growth model of "quality for profit". One-sentence conclusion: China's express logistics industry is bidding farewell to the vicious cycle of "price war" and entering a "quality-driven" growth stage centered on profit and efficiency. The profitability of leading companies is expected to continue to improve, and Manbang and Jitu have the most investment value. Positive/negative: Positive for Manbang Group (YMM.US), Jitu Express (J&T.US), ZTO Express (ZTO.US), JD Logistics (2618.HK), and SF Holding (002352.SZ). Improvements in industry pricing power and earnings repair may not yet be fully reflected by the market. Catalysts: 1) Industry monthly unit price and cost data verify pricing and profit repair trends; 2) Companies’ 2Q26 financial reports verify profit growth expectations; 3) Industry regulatory policies continue to promote “anti-involution”.