High-frequency data shows structural differentiation of economic momentum, focusing on energy price shocks (Goldman Sachs)
The Goldman Sachs report shows that China’s economic activities show structural differentiation.
The Goldman Sachs report shows that China’s economic activities show structural differentiation. Real estate transactions and domestic flights improved, but steel production rose while demand fell. Local special bond issuance exceeded 2.36 trillion yuan, and the RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. The core fact is that the economic recovery is not balanced and the impact of energy price supply shocks needs to be continuously monitored. The report has been changed to being published weekly to track changes. One sentence conclusion: China's economic recovery shows structural characteristics, with some areas improving and some areas under pressure. Energy prices are currently the most important macro risk variable, and high-frequency data changes need to be paid close attention to. Pros/Cons: Neutral. This report provides a macro data framework rather than specific investment recommendations. The impact on different industries is different: good for real estate and aviation; bad for steel. The current market has partly reflected this differentiation. Catalysts: 1) High-frequency data released weekly (such as real estate transactions, power generation, freight volume); 2) Central Economic Work Conference and policy signals; 3) Energy price trends (especially crude oil and coal).