2Q26 pre-announcement shows that A-share profit pressure has eased, MSCI China signal has strengthened, focus on 16 positive stocks (Morgan Stanley)
The Morgan Stanley report analyzed the 2Q26 pre-announcement and found that A-share profit pressure has eased (net negative narrowed to -4.5%, net positive +17.0% by market capitalization), and MSCI China's profit signal has strengthened (net positive +17.7%).
The Morgan Stanley report analyzed the 2Q26 pre-announcement and found that A-share profit pressure has eased (net negative narrowed to -4.5%, net positive +17.0% by market capitalization), and MSCI China's profit signal has strengthened (net positive +17.7%). Materials, energy, IT and financial sectors led the way, while real estate and automobiles were weak. Based on this, the report highlights focusing on 16 positive stocks and avoiding 14 negative stocks during the performance period to optimize positions. One sentence conclusion: The profit expectations of A-shares and MSCI China are improving, and market sentiment is expected to get warmer. Investors should adjust their positions to sectors and stocks with improved profits based on pre-announcement signals. Good/bad: Good for the A-share and MSCI China markets as a whole, especially for the materials, energy, IT and financial sectors. The current market may have partially reflected earnings improvement expectations, but individual stock differentiation will intensify. Catalysts: 1) The company’s semi-annual report results will be released intensively; 2) The sustainability of earnings forecast revisions; 3) The strength of macro policy support.