LLY market-structure snapshot

$LLY: multi-source stock research

ELI LILLY & Co

MARKET STRUCTURE

Latest close on July 24, 2026: $1,196.03 (+0.9% on the latest daily bar).

HMA21 / HMA55: $1,160.15 / $1,207.59. 200DMA: $1,016.12.

Relative volume: 0.70x the 20-day average.

Nearest support/watch zone: $1,187.50.

Nearest resistance/watch zone: $1,196.29.

Price is above the 200DMA, so the long-term trend reference is supportive.

FUNDAMENTALS AND VALUATION

Latest comparable filing period: 2026 Q1 ending 2026-03-31; filed 2026-04-30.

Comparable growth: revenue +55.5% YoY; net income +168.1% YoY; diluted EPS +169.9% YoY.

Quality and cash conversion: net margin 37.4% (+1568 bp YoY).

Valuation snapshot: trailing P/E 42.5x; forward P/E 26.7x; EV/EBITDA 30.5x; P/S 14.8x.

Read-through:
• Net income grew faster than revenue, indicating positive earnings leverage in the comparable period.

RECENT INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH

• 2026-07-14 — Eli Lilly's GLP-1 market model update: The U.S. market size in 2031 is expected to reach US$102 billion (Bernstein)

Bernstein updated Eli Lilly's GLP-1 market model, predicting that the U.S. brand GLP-1 market will reach US$102 billion in 2031, and Eli Lilly can occupy about 70% of the market. Among them, Mounjaro and Zepbound are the main players, with oral preparations accounting for about 22% of the peak market share.

• 2026-07-14 — Lp(a) - Battle for the throne of new cardiovascular drugs: HORIZON trial results will determine the outcome (Goldman Sachs)

Goldman Sachs conducted an in-depth analysis of Lp(a), a genetic risk factor that affects approximately 1.4 billion people worldwide, independent of other factors. Development is currently entering a critical validation phase. Novartis/IONIS's HORIZON phase III trial is the first study to test whether lowering Lp(a) can bring cardiovascular benefits.

BOTTOM LINE

The technical structure is mixed, while the latest comparable period showed growth in both revenue and net income. The next confirmation must come from both price structure and the next reported operating data—not from narrative alone.

WHAT TO WATCH

• Holding above HMA21 near $1,160.15 would preserve the short-term structure.
• A close below the nearby support zone around $1,187.50 would weaken the setup.
• Whether the next filing confirms that revenue growth is converting into net income, EPS and cash flow.
• Whether the operating milestones identified in recent institutional research become measurable disclosures.

Research and technical observation only; not a trade recommendation.

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