Intel earnings report and AMD event reveal: PC demand shrinks, but server CPU demand is strong until 2028 (J.P. Morgan)
The J.P.
The J.P. Morgan report sorted out PC and server supply chain trends based on Intel's financial reports and AMD technology conferences. Intel's client business exceeds expectations, but PC demand faces low double-digit shrinkage; data center business grows strongly, and server CPU demand will continue until 2028. The industrial chain continues to be restricted in aspects such as advanced logic, silicon wafers, memory and substrates, and supply may be tight throughout 2027. The report reiterates its optimism about traditional server supply chain targets (including ASPEED, Wiwynn, Lotes and Unimicron). The implication of the potential transaction is that we should be firmly optimistic about the AI server/CPU supply chain and avoid PC-related fields. One sentence conclusion: The PC market continues to shrink, and the boom in demand for AI-driven server CPUs will continue until at least 2028. We are fully optimistic about the server supply chain, especially core targets such as ASPEED and Wiwynn. Positive/negative: Positive for server supply chain targets such as ASPEED, Wiwynn, Lotes, and Unimicron; negative for PC-related component manufacturers and brands such as ASUS and MSI. The market's optimistic expectations for AI server demand may have been partially priced in, but the strength and sustainability of the traditional server CPU upgrade cycle may still be underestimated. Catalysts: 1) Intel and AMD's subsequent financial reports and capital expenditure guidance; 2) Monthly revenue data from server ODM manufacturers (such as Wiwynn); 3) Yield and mass production progress of Intel's 18A and 14A processes.