SpaceX: The leading position in rocket launches is stable, but the core innovation needs to be verified, covering it for the first time with a "hold" rating (HSBC)
HSBC covers SpaceX for the first time, positioning it as a vertically integrated enterprise with three pillars: space, connectivity and AI.
HSBC covers SpaceX for the first time, positioning it as a vertically integrated enterprise with three pillars: space, connectivity and AI. The company relies on its leading advantage in rocket launches to support Starlink business and plan orbital computing power, but core technological innovations have yet to be verified. Financial forecasts show rapid revenue growth but early losses, and it is expected that free cash flow will not turn positive until 2030. HSBC also questioned the reasonableness of SpaceX’s claim of a total addressable market (TAM) of US$28.5 trillion, and pointed out risks such as the lack of near-term economic feasibility of the orbital data center, limited mass production of Terafab and centralized governance. One-sentence conclusion: SpaceX’s rocket launch advantage is a deterministic asset, but its grand narrative of AI and orbital computing currently lacks solid evidence. Investors should carefully evaluate technology implementation and high cash consumption. The current valuation has partially reflected the innovation premium. Positive/negative: Neutral bias favors SpaceX (SPCX.US). The first coverage gives a "hold" rating, indicating that the market has priced in its fundamentals, but non-public market transactions may not have fully factored in the long-term risks of its future cash flow. Catalyst: Starship test progress, especially the success of orbital-level flight and V3 version booster recovery. The number of Starlink users and revenue have grown, verifying its cash flow capabilities. Any substantive cooperation agreement or technological breakthrough in orbital data center or AI computing power business.