Suddenly dive! Big news comes from the United States and Iran, oil prices plummet! Trump’s latest order
There are new changes in the situation in the Middle East! On the morning of July 26, Beijing time, the international crude oil black market price suddenly plunged. Among them, the black market price of New York crude oil fell by nearly 4%, and the black market price of Brent crude oil also fell by more than 3%. On the news, US President Trump ordered the US military to suspend its strikes against Iran on the 24th local time, ending the previous 13 consecutive days (nearly two weeks) of daily air strikes. Just hours before the suspension of operations, an Omani delegation arrived in Iran to hold talks on restarting arrangements for passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
There are new changes in the situation in the Middle East! On the morning of July 26, Beijing time, the international crude oil black market price suddenly plunged. Among them, the black market price of New York crude oil fell by nearly 4%, and the black market price of Brent crude oil also fell by more than 3%. On the news, US President Trump ordered the US military to suspend its strikes against Iran on the 24th local time, ending the previous 13 consecutive days (nearly two weeks) of daily air strikes. Just hours before the suspension of operations, an Omani delegation arrived in Iran to hold talks on restarting arrangements for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. According to foreign media reports, negotiations have made progress and Oman and Iran are expected to reach an agreement this weekend. Market analysts pointed out that falling oil prices have moderated inflation expectations, and market concerns about the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes will weaken, providing a short-term breathing window for global technology stocks. At the same time, the cooling of the situation in the Middle East has weakened geopolitical risk aversion, and funds are expected to flow back into growth sectors such as technology from safe assets such as gold and energy. However, this is more of a short-term sentiment repair, and the mid-term trend of technology stocks still depends on the verification of returns on AI capital expenditures and the performance of the upcoming earnings season. From the early morning of July 26 to now, the crude oil black market has plummeted. As of press time, the New York crude oil black market and Brent crude oil black market fell by 3.86% and 3.13% respectively, with prices reported at US$86.62/barrel and US$89.56/barrel respectively. Changes in the situation in the Middle East are the main reason for the plunge in oil prices. According to a report by Xinhua News Agency on the 25th, citing the American Axios news website, US President Trump ordered the US military on the 24th not to launch an attack on Iran that day, thus breaking the previous 13 consecutive days of US military air strikes against Iran. The report quoted two people familiar with the matter as saying that in the past two weeks, Trump had approved strike plans submitted by the military every afternoon, and these operations were usually executed within hours. However, Trump did not approve a similar plan after receiving it on the 24th. Instead, he instructed the military not to carry out a strike. It's unclear whether this is just a one-time move. According to reports, Trump’s move on the one hand shows that he is willing to create more space for diplomatic efforts, and on the other hand, it also shows that he realizes that unless large-scale military operations are restarted, it will be difficult for the US military’s current air strikes to achieve further results. Sources said that the US military is still making plans for the possible resumption of large-scale combat operations, but Trump has not yet made a decision. The report also said that hours before Trump ordered the suspension of strikes, an Omani delegation arrived in Iran to hold talks on reopening arrangements for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Two sources in the region said talks had progressed and Oman and Iran were expected to reach a deal by the end of the week. Trump told the media at the White House on the afternoon of the 24th that the United States and Iran are still talking, and said that Iran "is serious this time." He also threatened that the United States could continue its military strikes against Iran. "If necessary, it can be upgraded to a higher level. We are ready and can act at any time." According to CCTV news reports, Qatar announced on July 25 that maritime navigation activities of all types of ships will be fully resumed starting from July 26. Previously, Qatar advised citizens on July 12 to suspend all maritime activities. The local maritime department said in a statement that all crew members and operators must strictly abide by national maritime regulations. Before and during the voyage, safety and security equipment must be fully inspected and equipped to ensure the safety of maritime navigation. Many countries in the Middle East are opening up new energy channels The Strait of Hormuz is a chokepoint for the energy exports of Gulf countries such as Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain. Affected by the US-Iran war, navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has been basically interrupted. On Thursday (July 23), due to the attack on a Saudi Arabian oil tanker in the Red Sea and the further escalation of military conflicts in the Middle East, the price of the September Brent crude oil futures contract in London briefly exceeded US$100 per barrel. As the war between the United States and Iran intensifies again, the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, two important international energy transportation channels, has been affected, and the energy exports of many countries in the Middle East have been blocked. It is reported that many countries in the Middle East are working on opening up new energy channels in an effort to reduce dependence on these two straits. According to CCTV News citing US news on the 24th, many governments and energy companies in the Middle East are accelerating the construction of transportation pipelines, ports and corridors, aiming to transport energy and other goods around the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia has announced the expansion of an oil pipeline connecting the country's oil-producing areas in the east to the port of Yanbu on the west coast to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and transport crude oil to the Red Sea side for export. However, sources pointed out that as the Houthi armed forces implement a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia, if oil tankers carrying Saudi crude oil cannot leave from the Red Sea southward through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait guarded by the Houthi armed forces, their only option is to go north from the Red Sea through the Suez Canal and detour into the Mediterranean. This will significantly increase the transportation cycle and cost of Saudi crude oil. The United Arab Emirates, another major crude oil exporter in the Middle East, owns the port of Fujairah south of the Strait of Hormuz and can currently export 1.8 million barrels of crude oil to the global market per day. Currently, the UAE has announced a large-scale port expansion plan that is expected to double its oil export capacity without passing through the Strait of Hormuz to 3.6 million barrels per day by the end of 2027. Kuwait is also in talks with neighboring countries to expand their pipeline systems to transport its crude oil around the Strait of Hormuz. It is reported that Iraq, another Middle East oil-producing country, is currently using a huge fleet of trucks to transport oil to Mediterranean ports in Syria for export. Iraq also plans to build new crude oil pipelines and repair old ones to avoid exporting oil through the Strait of Hormuz. According to foreign media reports, Gulf officials, energy companies and market analysts revealed that at least seven large-scale oil pipeline projects are currently under construction, planning or discussion, aiming to export crude oil to the international market through routes such as the Red Sea, Suez Canal and Gulf of Oman. Victoria Grabenwger, a senior researcher at data company Kpler, said that Gulf oil producers are so dependent on the Strait of Hormuz that "it is no longer a prudent long-term strategy."
Saudi Arabia has announced the expansion of an oil pipeline connecting the country's oil-producing areas in the east to the port of Yanbu on the west coast to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and transport crude oil to the Red Sea side for export. However, sources pointed out that as the Houthi armed forces implement a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia, if oil tankers carrying Saudi crude oil cannot leave from the Red Sea southward through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait guarded by the Houthi armed forces, their only option is to go north from the Red Sea through the Suez Canal and detour into the Mediterranean. This will significantly increase the transportation cycle and cost of Saudi crude oil. The United Arab Emirates, another major crude oil exporter in the Middle East, owns the port of Fujairah south of the Strait of Hormuz and can currently export 1.8 million barrels of crude oil to the global market per day. Currently, the UAE has announced a large-scale port expansion plan that is expected to double its oil export capacity without passing through the Strait of Hormuz to 3.6 million barrels per day by the end of 2027. Kuwait is also in talks with neighboring countries to expand their pipeline systems to transport its crude oil around the Strait of Hormuz. It is reported that Iraq, another Middle East oil-producing country, is currently using a huge fleet of trucks to transport oil to Mediterranean ports in Syria for export. Iraq also plans to build new crude oil pipelines and repair old ones to avoid exporting oil through the Strait of Hormuz. According to foreign media reports, Gulf officials, energy companies and market analysts revealed that at least seven large-scale oil pipeline projects are currently under construction, planning or discussion, aiming to export crude oil to the international market through routes such as the Red Sea, Suez Canal and Gulf of Oman. Victoria Grabenwger, a senior researcher at data company Kpler, said that Gulf oil producers are so dependent on the Strait of Hormuz that "it is no longer a prudent long-term strategy."