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MU market-structure snapshot

2026-07-26·stock-deep-dive-20260726-022001-01-mu
$MU: multi-source stock research

Micron Technology, Inc.

MARKET STRUCTURE

Latest close on July 24, 2026: $920.95 (-7.0% on the latest daily bar).

HMA21 / HMA55: $898.98 / $981.81. 200DMA: $502.06.

Relative volume: 0.83x the 20-day average.

Nearest support/watch zone: $904.00.

Nearest resistance/watch zone: $967.14.

Price is above the 200DMA, so the long-term trend reference is supportive.

FUNDAMENTALS AND VALUATION

Latest comparable filing period: 2026 Q3 ending 2026-05-28; filed 2026-06-25.

Comparable growth: revenue +345.7% YoY; net income +1398.3% YoY; diluted EPS +1368.5% YoY.

Quality and cash conversion: net margin 68.1% (+4786 bp YoY); YTD SEC free-cash-flow proxy $26.10B (+1535.3% YoY).

Valuation snapshot: trailing P/E 20.8x; forward P/E 6.0x; EV/EBITDA 15.0x; P/S 11.5x.

Read-through:
• Net income grew faster than revenue, indicating positive earnings leverage in the comparable period.
• Diluted EPS growth lagged net-income growth, making share-count effects worth monitoring.
• Cash generation improved versus the comparable period.

RECENT INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH

• 2026-07-20 — The release of Kimi K3 open source model is good for Nvidia, and Micron’s valuation discount needs to be repaired (UBS)

A UBS report pointed out that Kimi K3 released by Moonshot AI, as the largest open source model, will drive the growth in demand for open source models and benefit computing power manufacturers such as NVIDIA (NVDA).

At the same time, the valuation discount of Micron (MU) compared to SK Hynix is not in line with historical rules, and it will generate huge free cash flow for many years in the future, with repurchase potential.

• 2026-07-14 — DRAM contract prices are expected to peak in 4Q26, and NAND supply and demand will remain tightly balanced until 2028. Pay attention to the… (Morgan Stanley)

Morgan Stanley raised three core debates around the memory cycle: AI spending, long-term agreement revaluation, and cycle position. It pointed out that DRAM contract prices are expected to peak in the fourth quarter of 2026, and DRAM and NAND inventories have rebounded during the same period.

Research and analysis of the NAND supply and demand pattern under YMTC's capacity expansion predict that if AI capital expenditures continue to grow and YMTC's capacity expansion is restrained, the NAND market will maintain a tight balance until 2028.

BOTTOM LINE

The technical structure is mixed, while the latest comparable period showed growth in both revenue and net income. The next confirmation must come from both price structure and the next reported operating data—not from narrative alone.

WHAT TO WATCH

• Holding above HMA21 near $898.98 would preserve the short-term structure.
• A close below the nearby support zone around $904.00 would weaken the setup.
• Whether the next filing confirms that revenue growth is converting into net income, EPS and cash flow.
• Whether the operating milestones identified in recent institutional research become measurable disclosures.

Research and technical observation only; not a trade recommendation.

#Stocks #Fundamentals #TechnicalAnalysis #MU #NVDA

Charts

MU chart 1
MU chart 1

Full text

MU market-structure snapshot

Latest close on July 24, 2026: $920.95 (-7.0% on the latest daily bar). HMA21 / HMA55: $898.98 / $981.81. 200DMA: $502.06. Relative volume: 0.83x the 20-day average.

Latest close on July 24, 2026: $920.95 (-7.0% on the latest daily bar). HMA21 / HMA55: $898.98 / $981.81. 200DMA: $502.06. Relative volume: 0.83x the 20-day average.

MU latest SEC/Yahoo fundamental and valuation snapshot

Latest comparable filing period: 2026 Q3 ending 2026-05-28; filed 2026-06-25. Comparable growth: revenue +345.7% YoY; net income +1398.3% YoY; diluted EPS +1368.5% YoY.

Latest comparable filing period: 2026 Q3 ending 2026-05-28; filed 2026-06-25.
Comparable growth: revenue +345.7% YoY; net income +1398.3% YoY; diluted EPS +1368.5% YoY.
Quality and cash conversion: net margin 68.1% (+4786 bp YoY); YTD SEC free-cash-flow proxy $26.10B (+1535.3% YoY).
Valuation snapshot: trailing P/E 20.8x; forward P/E 6.0x; EV/EBITDA 15.0x; P/S 11.5x.
Net income grew faster than revenue, indicating positive earnings leverage in the comparable period.
Diluted EPS growth lagged net-income growth, making share-count effects worth monitoring.
Cash generation improved versus the comparable period.

The release of Kimi K3 open source model is good for Nvidia, and Micron’s valuation discount needs to be repaired (UBS)

A UBS report pointed out that Kimi K3 released by Moonshot AI, as the largest open source model, will drive the growth in demand for open source models and benefit computing power manufacturers such as NVIDIA (NVDA). At the same time, the valuation discount of Micron (MU) compared to SK Hynix is not in line with historical rules, and it will generate huge free cash flow for many years in the future, with repurchase potential.

A UBS report pointed out that Kimi K3 released by Moonshot AI, as the largest open source model, will drive the growth in demand for open source models and benefit computing power manufacturers such as NVIDIA (NVDA). At the same time, the valuation discount of Micron (MU) compared to SK Hynix is not in line with historical rules, and it will generate huge free cash flow for many years in the future, with repurchase potential.

DRAM contract prices are expected to peak in 4Q26, and NAND supply and demand will remain tightly balanced until 2028. Pay attention to the… (Morgan Stanley)

Morgan Stanley raised three core debates around the memory cycle: AI spending, long-term agreement revaluation, and cycle position. It pointed out that DRAM contract prices are expected to peak in the fourth quarter of 2026, and DRAM and NAND inventories have rebounded during the same period. Research and analysis of the NAND supply and demand pattern under YMTC's capacity expansion predict that if AI capital expenditures continue to grow and YMTC's capacity expansion is restrained, the NAND market will maintain a tight balance until 2028.

Morgan Stanley raised three core debates around the memory cycle: AI spending, long-term agreement revaluation, and cycle position. It pointed out that DRAM contract prices are expected to peak in the fourth quarter of 2026, and DRAM and NAND inventories have rebounded during the same period. Research and analysis of the NAND supply and demand pattern under YMTC's capacity expansion predict that if AI capital expenditures continue to grow and YMTC's capacity expansion is restrained, the NAND market will maintain a tight balance until 2028.

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