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NVDA market-structure snapshot

2026-07-26·stock-deep-dive-20260726-142001-01-nvda
$NVDA: multi-source stock research

NVIDIA CORP

MARKET STRUCTURE

Latest close on July 24, 2026: $206.84 (-0.9% on the latest daily bar).

HMA21 / HMA55: $210.10 / $201.55. 200DMA: $192.91.

Relative volume: 0.86x the 20-day average.

Nearest support/watch zone: $204.81.

Nearest resistance/watch zone: $211.91.

Price is above the 200DMA, so the long-term trend reference is supportive.

FUNDAMENTALS AND VALUATION

Latest comparable filing period: 2027 Q1 ending 2026-04-26; filed 2026-05-20.

Comparable growth: revenue +85.2% YoY; net income +210.6% YoY; diluted EPS +214.5% YoY.

Quality and cash conversion: net margin 71.5% (+2885 bp YoY); quarterly SEC free-cash-flow proxy $49.97B (+83.9% YoY).

Valuation snapshot: trailing P/E 31.6x; forward P/E 16.1x; EV/EBITDA 30.0x; P/S 19.8x.

Read-through:
• Net income grew faster than revenue, indicating positive earnings leverage in the comparable period.
• Cash generation improved versus the comparable period.

RECENT INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH

• 2026-07-20 — Apple's AI server chips face challenges, which may benefit Nvidia (Morgan Stanley)

The Morgan Stanley report pointed out that Apple's AI server chips (including M2 Ultra and the first-generation ASIC "Baltra") may face performance challenges, which may cause Siri AI to perform less than expected, or force Apple to use more expensive NVIDIA (NVDA) chips in Google Cloud.

The first-generation Baltra ASIC is planned to be mass-produced in small quantities in the first half of 2027, and the second-generation ASIC is expected to be launched in
2028. The market has high expectations for Apple's AI capabilities, but chip-level challenges may delay the large-scale deployment of its AI capabilities.

• 2026-07-20 — The release of Kimi K3 open source model is good for Nvidia, and Micron’s valuation discount needs to be repaired (UBS)

A UBS report pointed out that Kimi K3 released by Moonshot AI, as the largest open source model, will drive the growth in demand for open source models and benefit computing power manufacturers such as NVIDIA (NVDA).

At the same time, the valuation discount of Micron (MU) compared to SK Hynix is not in line with historical rules, and it will generate huge free cash flow for many years in the future, with repurchase potential.

BOTTOM LINE

The technical structure is mixed, while the latest comparable period showed growth in both revenue and net income. The next confirmation must come from both price structure and the next reported operating data—not from narrative alone.

WHAT TO WATCH

• A reclaim of HMA21 near $210.10 would be the first meaningful stabilization signal.
• A close below the nearby support zone around $204.81 would weaken the setup.
• Whether the next filing confirms that revenue growth is converting into net income, EPS and cash flow.
• Whether the operating milestones identified in recent institutional research become measurable disclosures.

Research and technical observation only; not a trade recommendation.

#Stocks #Fundamentals #TechnicalAnalysis #NVDA #MU

Charts

NVDA chart 1
NVDA chart 1

Full text

NVDA market-structure snapshot

Latest close on July 24, 2026: $206.84 (-0.9% on the latest daily bar). HMA21 / HMA55: $210.10 / $201.55. 200DMA: $192.91. Relative volume: 0.86x the 20-day average.

Latest close on July 24, 2026: $206.84 (-0.9% on the latest daily bar). HMA21 / HMA55: $210.10 / $201.55. 200DMA: $192.91. Relative volume: 0.86x the 20-day average.

NVDA latest SEC/Yahoo fundamental and valuation snapshot

Latest comparable filing period: 2027 Q1 ending 2026-04-26; filed 2026-05-20. Comparable growth: revenue +85.2% YoY; net income +210.6% YoY; diluted EPS +214.5% YoY.

Latest comparable filing period: 2027 Q1 ending 2026-04-26; filed 2026-05-20.
Comparable growth: revenue +85.2% YoY; net income +210.6% YoY; diluted EPS +214.5% YoY.
Quality and cash conversion: net margin 71.5% (+2885 bp YoY); quarterly SEC free-cash-flow proxy $49.97B (+83.9% YoY).
Valuation snapshot: trailing P/E 31.6x; forward P/E 16.1x; EV/EBITDA 30.0x; P/S 19.8x.
Net income grew faster than revenue, indicating positive earnings leverage in the comparable period.
Cash generation improved versus the comparable period.

Apple's AI server chips face challenges, which may benefit Nvidia (Morgan Stanley)

The Morgan Stanley report pointed out that Apple's AI server chips (including M2 Ultra and the first-generation ASIC "Baltra") may face performance challenges, which may cause Siri AI to perform less than expected, or force Apple to use more expensive NVIDIA (NVDA) chips in Google Cloud. The first-generation Baltra ASIC is planned to be mass-produced in small quantities in the first half of 2027, and the second-generation ASIC is expected to be launched in 2028. The market has high expectations for Apple's AI capabilities, but chip-level challenges may delay the large-scale deployment of its AI capabilities.

The Morgan Stanley report pointed out that Apple's AI server chips (including M2 Ultra and the first-generation ASIC "Baltra") may face performance challenges, which may cause Siri AI to perform less than expected, or force Apple to use more expensive NVIDIA (NVDA) chips in Google Cloud. The first-generation Baltra ASIC is planned to be mass-produced in small quantities in the first half of 2027, and the second-generation ASIC is expected to be launched in 2028. The market has high expectations for Apple's AI capabilities, but chip-level challenges may delay the large-scale deployment of its AI capabilities.

The release of Kimi K3 open source model is good for Nvidia, and Micron’s valuation discount needs to be repaired (UBS)

A UBS report pointed out that Kimi K3 released by Moonshot AI, as the largest open source model, will drive the growth in demand for open source models and benefit computing power manufacturers such as NVIDIA (NVDA). At the same time, the valuation discount of Micron (MU) compared to SK Hynix is not in line with historical rules, and it will generate huge free cash flow for many years in the future, with repurchase potential.

A UBS report pointed out that Kimi K3 released by Moonshot AI, as the largest open source model, will drive the growth in demand for open source models and benefit computing power manufacturers such as NVIDIA (NVDA). At the same time, the valuation discount of Micron (MU) compared to SK Hynix is not in line with historical rules, and it will generate huge free cash flow for many years in the future, with repurchase potential.

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