AI squeezes the supply of DRAM chips, another module factory warns of the risk of "no goods to sell"
Recently, storage module manufacturer Apacer Technology stated that as the world's three major DRAM original manufacturers' new production capacity is almost fully devoted to AI products, the supply in the general market continues to decrease, and the imbalance between supply and demand will still be difficult to alleviate in the short term. The company pointed out that the new production capacity of the world's three largest DRAM original manufacturers has been almost fully invested in AI products such as HBM, server DDR5 and LPDDR5X, and the number of particles allocated to the general DDR5, DDR4 and industrial control markets continues to decrease.
Recently, storage module manufacturer Apacer Technology stated that as the world's three major DRAM original manufacturers' new production capacity is almost fully devoted to AI products, the supply in the general market continues to decrease, and the imbalance between supply and demand will still be difficult to alleviate in the short term. The company pointed out that the new production capacity of the world's three largest DRAM original manufacturers has been almost fully invested in AI products such as HBM, server DDR5 and LPDDR5X, and the number of particles allocated to the general DDR5, DDR4 and industrial control markets continues to decrease. It pointed out that according to the original factory supply plan, the supply of DRAM that can be allocated to module factories will continue to decline in the future, prices will continue to rise, and the imbalance between supply and demand may continue until at least the first half of 2027. Public information shows that Apacer Technology was founded in 1997 and has a leading position in the consumer storage market. It is the main representative of Taiwan's storage modules along with ADATA and Team Group. Its products cover solutions such as storage modules, industrial SSDs, consumer digital storage products, and IoT integrated applications. Although the storage market is currently trapped in a supply and demand imbalance cycle, the company revealed that various module factories, including Apacer Technology, are still actively building inventory to avoid the risk of running out of goods to sell in the future. In fact, the above statement has become a general consensus in the storage module industry: ADATA previously stated that memory shortages will continue until 2027, and the company continues to increase inventory to fully meet the strong demand for storage; Xia Danning, chairman of Team Group Technology, said that judging from the current order intake and technology development trends, the demand from 2026 to the first half of 2027 is still very large, and prices are likely to remain high. Regarding whether the storage market can get out of the imbalance between supply and demand in the second half of 2027, Apacer Technology believes that it is still necessary to observe the expansion of production of various original manufacturers and changes in AI demand. Before AI investment cools down significantly, the "expensive and scarce" situation of DRAM and enterprise-level storage markets may be difficult to change in the short term. It is worth mentioning that this round of storage price increases has had an impact on the end market. Since PCs and smartphones are highly cost-sensitive, some brand manufacturers have begun to reduce storage purchases or delay shipments. Against this background, as the price of DDR5 continues to rise, some manufacturers have begun to re-evaluate DDR4. Apacer Technology stated that due to the better cost-effectiveness of DDR4, related demand is expected to gradually recover; and DDR4 prices are also supported by limited supply and are not likely to fall significantly. Guolian Minsheng Securities pointed out that recently, the three major original manufacturers have continued to strengthen the Value over Bit strategy and actively reduce profit fluctuations through long-term supply agreements, more prudent capital expenditures and rational supply management. SK hynix's management's statement that "rapid price increases are not a long-term healthy state" is not essentially a signal of price peaking, but reflects the leading manufacturer's hope to maximize corporate value by moderately releasing supply and extending the business cycle, rather than solely pursuing peak profit margins. Cathay Haitong Securities added that the slowdown in contract price growth in 26Q3 is not a signal of the peak of the cycle, and the price increase trend is expected to continue until 2027. On the production capacity side, supply discipline is still underestimated by the market. Most of the new capital expenditures of original factories are invested in the construction of new factories and clean rooms. The production expansion plan is promoted in a gradient. The production time can still be adjusted according to downstream demand, and the actual new production capacity is limited. The focus of the industry is expected to shift from cyclical games based on price rise and fall expectations to repricing based on high profitability certainty, driving the valuation center upward.