Big dive! New news from the United States and Iran: Oil prices plummet! U.S. stocks, European stocks, and gold collectively rose
Oil prices plummet! On the evening of July 27, international oil prices continued to fall. WTI crude oil futures once plummeted by more than 8%, and Brent crude oil futures also plummeted by more than 7%, once falling below the US$85/barrel mark. Lower energy prices have driven down U.S. Treasury bond yields generally, with the 10-year U.S. bond yield falling by more than 3 basis points to 4.6406%. The 2-year U.S. bond yield fell 2 basis points to 4.3030%; the 30-year U.S. bond yield, which has always been sensitive to geopolitical conflicts, fell more than 3 basis points to 5.1260%.
On the evening of July 27, international oil prices continued to fall. WTI crude oil futures once plummeted by more than 8%, and Brent crude oil futures also plummeted by more than 7%, once falling below the US$85/barrel mark. Lower energy prices have driven down U.S. Treasury bond yields generally, with the 10-year U.S. bond yield falling by more than 3 basis points to 4.6406%. The 2-year U.S. bond yield fell 2 basis points to 4.3030%; the 30-year U.S. bond yield, which has always been sensitive to geopolitical conflicts, fell more than 3 basis points to 5.1260%. Major European stock indexes rose sharply, with the German DAX30 index rising by more than 1.60% and the European Stoxx 50 index rising by more than 1%. U.S. stock futures also rose sharply, with Nasdaq futures rising nearly 1.50%. In the commodity market, spot gold and silver both rose by more than 1%. Previously, the United States and Iran successively released ceasefire signals, which led the market to bet that shipping controls in the Strait were expected to be loosened, and concerns about supply disruptions subsided significantly, triggering a sell-off in the crude oil futures market. On the 27th local time, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Bagaei said that talks between Iran and Oman on the management of the Strait of Hormuz have made positive progress. International oil prices plunged as the United States and Iran suspended attacks on each other. This evening, WTI crude oil futures once fell by more than 8%, reaching as low as $82.12 per barrel. As of press time, WTI crude oil futures fell 6.75% to US$83.28/barrel, and Brent crude oil futures fell 6.52% to US$85.70/barrel. Sally Auld, an analyst at National Australia Bank, said: "The situation in the Middle East ushered in a positive turn last weekend. The market situation confirmed that after oil prices reached US$100, both the United States and Iran were willing to cool down the situation." For the oil market, the US-Iran ceasefire signal is enough to trigger a round of violent profit-taking - the market has been bullish in the past few weeks and has accumulated a large number of long positions. However, for oil prices to form sustained downward pressure, a significant recovery in tanker traffic is still required. Ultimately, tankers will still face the same operational risks that have driven up freight rates over the past two weeks until a longer-term deal is agreed. The fall in oil prices has also alleviated market concerns about soaring inflation, and global stock markets have gained momentum. This evening, the major European stock indexes rose collectively. As of press time, the German DAX30 index rose 1.65%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.96%, the European Stoxx 50 index rose 1.39%, and the British FTSE 100 index rose 0.65%. U.S. stock futures also rose sharply, with Nasdaq futures rising nearly 1.50%, Dow futures rising 1.12%, and S&P 500 futures rising 1.95%. For traders, oil market volatility is likely to increase significantly in the coming days, driven by news from Washington and Tehran. Although part of the immediate risk premium has been released, it will still take time and confidence to restore shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. Latest news on the situation in the Middle East According to CCTV News, on the 27th local time, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Bagaei stated at a press conference that the Strait of Hormuz is still closed. Bagaei also said that talks between Iran and Oman on the management of the Strait of Hormuz have made positive progress. Bagaei said at a press conference that there are currently no negotiations between Iran and the United States. On the 27th local time, according to Israeli news, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s flight to Washington that was originally scheduled to fly to Washington at 11 a.m. that day was delayed. But the Prime Minister's Office has not given a new departure time or explained the reason for the delay. According to Xinhua News Agency, U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations Michael Waltz said on the 26th that U.S. President Trump has suspended military strikes against Iran to leave more space for diplomatic negotiations. In an interview with NBC that day, Waltz said that negotiations between the United States and Iran are still ongoing and are "taking place at all levels." According to Agence France-Presse, Iranian army spokesman Akraminiya warned on the 26th that Iran has suspended its "retaliatory actions", but if the United States continues its air strikes, the war will spread to a wider area. The U.S. Axios news website reported on the 26th, citing two people familiar with the matter, that Brad Cooper, commander of the U.S. Central Command, suggested suspending bombing operations against Iran around the Strait of Hormuz, believing that continuing such air strikes would have limited effect.
Cooper is the top military commander of the U.S. military in the Middle East. According to reports, Cooper’s suggestion and the opinions of other advisers led U.S. President Trump to make the decision to suspend the attack on Iran on the 24th. "This shows that both Trump's military and civilian advisers acknowledge that military operations, especially air strikes, have limited effectiveness." According to reports, Cooper made recommendations to the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff and the White House earlier last week. He believes that the two-week strike against Iran around the Strait of Hormuz "has significantly weakened Iran's ability to attack ships" and the designated bombing targets have been basically destroyed. Cooper said the possible next step is to resume large-scale combat operations and complete the remaining 20% of targets designated but not struck by the US military in Operation Epic Fury. But there is no point in continuing the bombing campaign against Iran without resuming large-scale combat operations. The report quoted sources as saying that Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Kane also privately reminded Trump and Defense Secretary Hegseth that the shortage of air defense interceptors may weaken the ability to protect US military and US allies in the Middle East.
Cooper is the top military commander of the U.S. military in the Middle East. According to reports, Cooper’s suggestion and the opinions of other advisers led U.S. President Trump to make the decision to suspend the attack on Iran on the 24th. "This shows that both Trump's military and civilian advisers acknowledge that military operations, especially air strikes, have limited effectiveness." According to reports, Cooper made recommendations to the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff and the White House earlier last week. He believes that the two-week strike against Iran around the Strait of Hormuz "has significantly weakened Iran's ability to attack ships" and the designated bombing targets have been basically destroyed. Cooper said the possible next step is to resume large-scale combat operations and complete the remaining 20% of targets designated but not struck by the US military in Operation Epic Fury. But there is no point in continuing the bombing campaign against Iran without resuming large-scale combat operations. The report quoted sources as saying that Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Kane also privately reminded Trump and Defense Secretary Hegseth that the shortage of air defense interceptors may weaken the ability to protect US military and US allies in the Middle East.