China Real Estate Weekly Tracking: New home sales fell slightly year-on-year, second-hand homes remain resilient, focus on improvement in sale rate (Morgan Stanley)
Morgan Stanley's 30th weekly database shows that registered sales of first-hand homes in 50 cities fell by 4% year-on-year, second-hand homes in 10 cities increased by 5% year-on-year, and the total sales rate rose to 50%.
Morgan Stanley's 30th weekly database shows that registered sales of first-hand homes in 50 cities fell by 4% year-on-year, second-hand homes in 10 cities increased by 5% year-on-year, and the total sales rate rose to 50%. The second-hand house price index in six cities in the Central Plains fell slightly, while the first-tier intermediary index rose slightly. In the industry rating coverage, many real estate companies received "positive rating" or "equal-weight" ratings, but some were "cautious rating". The report believes that the overall sector view is "in-line". The market had previously been divided on the sustainability of the real estate recovery. This data verified the differentiated pattern of "cold new homes and hot second-hand homes". The implication of potential transactions is that it is highlights that investors refer to the relative rating system and conduct independent evaluations, focusing on real estate companies with better sales and payment collection performance. One-sentence conclusion: China's property market is showing a structural recovery, and the new housing market is still under pressure. However, the increased activity in the second-hand housing market and the improvement in the sale rate have provided bottom support for the sector, and the differentiation of individual stocks will intensify. Positive/negative: Positive for second-hand housing trading platforms and some property service companies; negative for developers who mainly rely on new home sales. The current stock price has partially reflected the market's optimistic expectations for the policy, but the actual improvement in sales data has not yet been fully realized. Catalysts: 1) Follow-up weekly and monthly new and second-hand home sales data; 2) Whether there are new real estate support policies introduced; 3) Debt resolution and sales collection progress of key real estate companies.