Bernstein Says Inflation Is Pushing U.S. Shoppers Toward Value Retailers
Bernstein says U.S.
Bernstein says U.S. consumers remained resilient in 2Q26, but are clearly prioritizing value as CPI stays above 3.5%.
The note says value retailers such as Walmart, Costco and Dollar General should benefit. It also points to Tapestry, TJX Companies, Darden Restaurants, Starbucks, Mondelez International and Celsius Holdings as favored names. Home improvement and some alcoholic beverage categories were seen under pressure.
Bernstein says the trade-down trend is already on the market's radar, but the breadth of likely beneficiaries and the size of the effect may still be underestimated. The note cites CPI updates and quarterly results from major retailers as key catalysts.
The note says value retailers such as Walmart, Costco and Dollar General should benefit. It also points to Tapestry, TJX Companies, Darden Restaurants, Starbucks, Mondelez International and Celsius Holdings as favored names. Home improvement and some alcoholic beverage categories were seen under pressure.
Bernstein says the trade-down trend is already on the market's radar, but the breadth of likely beneficiaries and the size of the effect may still be underestimated. The note cites CPI updates and quarterly results from major retailers as key catalysts.