MSFT market-structure snapshot
Latest close on July 30, 2026: $455.96 (+16.8% on the latest daily bar). HMA21 / HMA55: $397.01 / $385.91. 200DMA: $433.85. Relative volume: 2.54x the 20-day average.
Latest close on July 30, 2026: $455.96 (+16.8% on the latest daily bar). HMA21 / HMA55: $397.01 / $385.91. 200DMA: $433.85. Relative volume: 2.54x the 20-day average.
MSFT latest SEC/Yahoo fundamental and valuation snapshot
Latest comparable filing period: 2026 FY ending 2026-06-30; filed 2026-07-29. Comparable growth: revenue +17.8% YoY; net income +31.3% YoY; diluted EPS +31.6% YoY.
Latest comparable filing period: 2026 FY ending 2026-06-30; filed 2026-07-29.
Comparable growth: revenue +17.8% YoY; net income +31.3% YoY; diluted EPS +31.6% YoY.
Quality and cash conversion: net margin 40.3% (+416 bp YoY); YTD SEC free-cash-flow proxy $66.99B (-6.5% YoY).
Valuation snapshot: trailing P/E 27.3x; forward P/E 20.1x; EV/EBITDA 16.0x; P/S 10.6x.
Net income grew faster than revenue, indicating positive earnings leverage in the comparable period.
Cash generation weakened versus the comparable period.
Microsoft Azure and Copilot have strong momentum, and the risk and return are attractive at low valuations (Morgan Stanley)
A Morgan Stanley report analyzes Microsoft's performance outlook and believes that low 40% Azure constant currency growth, accelerated Copilot monetization and strict operating expenditure discipline will strengthen its durable high total return characteristics. Channel inspections and CIO surveys confirm Microsoft’s extensive leadership in the cloud and AI fields. The market’s concerns about Microsoft may focus on the return period of capital expenditures on AI investment, but Morgan Stanley believes that the certainty and speed of its AI commercialization are being underestimated.
A Morgan Stanley report analyzes Microsoft's performance outlook and believes that low 40% Azure constant currency growth, accelerated Copilot monetization and strict operating expenditure discipline will strengthen its durable high total return characteristics. Channel inspections and CIO surveys confirm Microsoft’s extensive leadership in the cloud and AI fields. The market’s concerns about Microsoft may focus on the return period of capital expenditures on AI investment, but Morgan Stanley believes that the certainty and speed of its AI commercialization are being underestimated.
2Q26 CIO Survey: IT budget support has improved, but winners are still selective (Morgan Stanley)
Morgan Stanley's annual CIO survey shows that IT budget growth expectations in 2026 have increased to 3.8% month-on-month, and the one-year budget revision upside-to-downside ratio has reached 1.2x, which is the first time since 1Q24 that it has been >1x. Although the budget environment is improving, the flow of funds is very selective: software is growing the fastest, security software is the most defensive, and although AI is the top priority, its defensiveness is declining month-on-month. That means the overall environment for enterprise IT spending is improving modestly, but not all tech stocks will benefit.
Morgan Stanley's annual CIO survey shows that IT budget growth expectations in 2026 have increased to 3.8% month-on-month, and the one-year budget revision upside-to-downside ratio has reached 1.2x, which is the first time since 1Q24 that it has been >1x. Although the budget environment is improving, the flow of funds is very selective: software is growing the fastest, security software is the most defensive, and although AI is the top priority, its defensiveness is declining month-on-month. That means the overall environment for enterprise IT spending is improving modestly, but not all tech stocks will benefit.
