Space X stock swings sharply ahead of its first earnings report
SpaceX stock hit a record low this week, as its post-IPO rally came to an abrupt halt. With investors awaiting the newly listed company's first earnings report and a large-scale share lockup expiration, SpaceX shares swung sharply throughout the week. The stock first fell to a record low, briefly rebounded strongly and then weakened again. After several weak trading sessions, the stock continued lower in early Friday trading. On Monday, it touched a record low of $108.66 and closed down 1.4% at $113.50. It rebounded 2.6% on Tuesday but came under pressure again midweek. The stock fell about 5% for the full week. Since officially listing last month at $150, SpaceX has fallen nearly 30%. It is down nearly 50% from its record high of $225.64. The volatility came ahead of SpaceX's second-quarter earnings report, scheduled for Aug. 4. An additional overhang is the expiration of the share lockup period on Aug. 6. Under the lockup rules, as much as 20% of the shares could become unrestricted and available for sale. Many investors are concerned that the increase in share supply will continue to weigh on the stock. Separately, reports say Chief Executive Elon Musk is still pursuing a merger between SpaceX and Tesla (TSLA). The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that management teams at the two companies are discussing how Tesla's China business would be handled if the merger goes through. SpaceX holds a large volume of U.S. government and defense contracts, which could raise concerns in China. The Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter, reported: “As an important U.S. defense contractor, SpaceX would control Tesla's China factory if the merger were completed. There is a possibility that the factory's technology, manufacturing processes and supply-chain resources could be diverted for U.S. military use. The merger between SpaceX and Tesla would likely face strict scrutiny from China.” A source caption says that on June 12, 2026, the day SpaceX listed, an employee was using a phone while heading to work at the company's facility in Hawthorne, California. People familiar with the matter also told the newspaper that another concern in China is that SpaceX, and potentially the U.S. government, could gain access to data related to 2 million Tesla owners in China. Melissa Otto, an analyst at Visible Alpha, which is owned by S&P Global, wrote that, setting aside the merger speculation, the market will focus on SpaceX's capital expenditures when the company reports next week. Otto wrote: “The market expects SpaceX's capital expenditures to rise from $48.7 billion this year to $118.4 billion in fiscal 2028. At the same time, the company's total debt is expected to expand by more than five times, from $41.7 billion this year to more than $218 billion in fiscal 2028.” As with leading frontier AI startups, Alphabet, the parent company, and Meta, the metaverse platform, the market is concerned that SpaceX's massive spending could produce inadequate returns. The company is investing heavily in AI infrastructure, but the scale of the investment may ultimately make it difficult to generate stable, reasonable returns.
With investors awaiting the newly listed company's first earnings report and a large-scale share lockup expiration, SpaceX shares swung sharply throughout the week. The stock first fell to a record low, briefly rebounded strongly and then weakened again.
After several weak trading sessions, the stock continued lower in early Friday trading. On Monday, it touched a record low of $108.66 and closed down 1.4% at $113.50. It rebounded 2.6% on Tuesday but came under pressure again midweek. The stock fell about 5% for the full week.
Since officially listing last month at $150, SpaceX has fallen nearly 30%. It is down nearly 50% from its record high of $225.64.
The volatility came ahead of SpaceX's second-quarter earnings report, scheduled for Aug. 4. An additional overhang is the expiration of the share lockup period on Aug. 6. Under the lockup rules, as much as 20% of the shares could become unrestricted and available for sale. Many investors are concerned that the increase in share supply will continue to weigh on the stock.
Separately, reports say Chief Executive Elon Musk is still pursuing a merger between SpaceX and Tesla (TSLA). The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that management teams at the two companies are discussing how Tesla's China business would be handled if the merger goes through. SpaceX holds a large volume of U.S. government and defense contracts, which could raise concerns in China.
The Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter, reported: “As an important U.S. defense contractor, SpaceX would control Tesla's China factory if the merger were completed. There is a possibility that the factory's technology, manufacturing processes and supply-chain resources could be diverted for U.S. military use. The merger between SpaceX and Tesla would likely face strict scrutiny from China.”
A source caption says that on June 12, 2026, the day SpaceX listed, an employee was using a phone while heading to work at the company's facility in Hawthorne, California.
People familiar with the matter also told the newspaper that another concern in China is that SpaceX, and potentially the U.S. government, could gain access to data related to 2 million Tesla owners in China.
Melissa Otto, an analyst at Visible Alpha, which is owned by S&P Global, wrote that, setting aside the merger speculation, the market will focus on SpaceX's capital expenditures when the company reports next week.
Otto wrote: “The market expects SpaceX's capital expenditures to rise from $48.7 billion this year to $118.4 billion in fiscal 2028. At the same time, the company's total debt is expected to expand by more than five times, from $41.7 billion this year to more than $218 billion in fiscal 2028.”
As with leading frontier AI startups, Alphabet, the parent company, and Meta, the metaverse platform, the market is concerned that SpaceX's massive spending could produce inadequate returns. The company is investing heavily in AI infrastructure, but the scale of the investment may ultimately make it difficult to generate stable, reasonable returns.