World Gold Council Cuts Q 1 Central-Bank Gold-Buying Estimate; Full-Year Demand Seen Declining
The World Gold Council said in its latest report, released Thursday, that global central-bank gold purchases in the first quarter of 2026 were far below its previous estimate. Although demand rebounded sharply in the April-to-June quarter, the council expects full-year purchases to fall below the 2025 total. The council revised its estimate of first-quarter purchases to 57 metric tons from 244 metric tons, making it the lowest first-quarter level in more than 15 years. The revision suggests that the pace of central-bank gold buying for the full year could be below 2025 levels. Central-bank buying has been an important source of growth in global gold demand for the past four years and helped push gold prices to records earlier this year. Even after gold experienced several months of pullback, bullish investors continued to argue that the bull market was intact because of sustained central-bank purchases. The World Gold Council said net central-bank demand rebounded strongly in the second quarter, reaching a record 289 metric tons. Poland was the biggest buyer, purchasing 51 metric tons, followed by China with 33 metric tons. “Central banks will continue to maintain a strong pace of net purchases, supported by portfolio diversification and demand for hedges against inflation and risk, but annual demand is expected to be below the 2025 total,” the report said. The scale of the revision raised questions because World Gold Council executives had said in March that gold’s role as a hedge against de-dollarization and geopolitical risk was expected to encourage central banks that had been absent from the market for a long time to buy the metal. The council’s June 2026 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey also found that 45% of surveyed reserve managers expected to increase their gold holdings over the next 12 months. That share was up 2 percentage points from the previous year and was a record high. Shaokai Fan, head of the World Gold Council’s central banks division, said at the time that central banks remained highly interested in gold and that the recent price pullback had not changed their willingness to add to their holdings. “Central banks remain very bullish on gold—in fact, they are more positive than ever,” he said. The World Gold Council said the main reason for the large downward revision was that some transactions had been reclassified. Gold previously thought to have gone to official buyers is now included in the “over-the-counter and other” category. Central banks can disclose their purchases voluntarily and are not required to do so. Some major buyers disclose only part of their purchases, making actual buying more difficult to measure. The World Gold Council said its estimates indicate that a significant portion of central-bank gold buying is not disclosed by the monetary authorities themselves. The council uses data from consultancy Metals Focus, which estimates official quarterly purchases by combining public information with market reports. John Reade, the World Gold Council’s market strategist, said: “These errors happen from time to time. The quality of central-bank disclosures has declined since 2022.” After the Russia-Ukraine conflict began and the United States imposed sanctions on Russia, many emerging economies began reducing their reliance on the dollar in their foreign-exchange reserves and disclosing less information about their gold purchases. The World Gold Council subsequently adopted a new method for tracking gold flows. However, central banks may alter their purchasing methods after learning which indicators are being monitored. “Once they figure out how we track them, it becomes a bit like a cat-and-mouse game,” Reade added.
The council revised its estimate of first-quarter purchases to 57 metric tons from 244 metric tons, making it the lowest first-quarter level in more than 15 years. The revision suggests that the pace of central-bank gold buying for the full year could be below 2025 levels.
Central-bank buying has been an important source of growth in global gold demand for the past four years and helped push gold prices to records earlier this year. Even after gold experienced several months of pullback, bullish investors continued to argue that the bull market was intact because of sustained central-bank purchases.
The World Gold Council said net central-bank demand rebounded strongly in the second quarter, reaching a record 289 metric tons. Poland was the biggest buyer, purchasing 51 metric tons, followed by China with 33 metric tons.
“Central banks will continue to maintain a strong pace of net purchases, supported by portfolio diversification and demand for hedges against inflation and risk, but annual demand is expected to be below the 2025 total,” the report said.
The scale of the revision raised questions because World Gold Council executives had said in March that gold’s role as a hedge against de-dollarization and geopolitical risk was expected to encourage central banks that had been absent from the market for a long time to buy the metal.
The council’s June 2026 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey also found that 45% of surveyed reserve managers expected to increase their gold holdings over the next 12 months. That share was up 2 percentage points from the previous year and was a record high.
Shaokai Fan, head of the World Gold Council’s central banks division, said at the time that central banks remained highly interested in gold and that the recent price pullback had not changed their willingness to add to their holdings. “Central banks remain very bullish on gold—in fact, they are more positive than ever,” he said.
The World Gold Council said the main reason for the large downward revision was that some transactions had been reclassified. Gold previously thought to have gone to official buyers is now included in the “over-the-counter and other” category.
Central banks can disclose their purchases voluntarily and are not required to do so. Some major buyers disclose only part of their purchases, making actual buying more difficult to measure. The World Gold Council said its estimates indicate that a significant portion of central-bank gold buying is not disclosed by the monetary authorities themselves.
The council uses data from consultancy Metals Focus, which estimates official quarterly purchases by combining public information with market reports. John Reade, the World Gold Council’s market strategist, said: “These errors happen from time to time. The quality of central-bank disclosures has declined since 2022.”
After the Russia-Ukraine conflict began and the United States imposed sanctions on Russia, many emerging economies began reducing their reliance on the dollar in their foreign-exchange reserves and disclosing less information about their gold purchases. The World Gold Council subsequently adopted a new method for tracking gold flows. However, central banks may alter their purchasing methods after learning which indicators are being monitored.
“Once they figure out how we track them, it becomes a bit like a cat-and-mouse game,” Reade added.