India’s June Auto Wholesale Volumes Rose Across Categories; Nomura Sees an EV-Penetration Inflection Point
India’s June 2026 automobile wholesale volumes rose strongly across all major categories, according to a Nomura research note.
India’s June 2026 automobile wholesale volumes rose strongly across all major categories, according to a Nomura research note. Passenger-vehicle (PV) volumes increased 33% year over year, tractor volumes rose 21%, two-wheeler (2W) volumes climbed 23%, and medium- and heavy-commercial-vehicle (MHCV) volumes grew 29%.
Electric-vehicle penetration continued to rise. PV EV penetration reached 7.7% in July, while 2W EV penetration reached 11.2%. Nomura said India’s EV market is at an inflection point in adoption.
Maruti Suzuki’s domestic PV sales rose 42.4% to 196.2k units. Tata Motors’ PV EV sales increased 114% year over year to 15.2k units, with EVs accounting for 24.3% of its PV sales. Hyundai India’s exports substantially exceeded expectations, rising 31.4% versus an expectation of 13k units. Ather Energy’s retail sales rose 59.2% year over year to 28.4k units.
Nomura’s preferred stocks were Mahindra (MM IN), Hyundai India, Ather Energy, TVS Motors, Sona BLW and UNOMINDA, all of which it rated Buy. It also cited potential upside of 15% for Hyundai India, 17% for Ather Energy, 7% for TVS Motors, 10% for Sona BLW and 27% for UNOMINDA.
Nomura identified several risks. Rainfall remained 12% below normal, which could weigh on rural demand. Growth could also slow in 2HFY27F because of a high base.
The note’s conclusion was that strong Indian auto demand, combined with an EV-penetration inflection point, favored Mahindra, Hyundai India and companies across the EV supply chain, while the market should monitor second-half base effects and uncertainty around rural demand.
Nomura viewed Mahindra, Hyundai India, Ather Energy, Tata Motors, TVS Motors, Sona BLW and UNOMINDA as beneficiaries. It also said the broader Indian EV supply chain would benefit, citing PV penetration of 7.7% and 2W penetration of 11.2% as evidence that the inflection point had been confirmed. It identified MHCV commercial vehicles, including TMCV and VECV, as under pressure because they came in below expectations, along with tractor and rural-demand-linked companies because of insufficient rainfall.
The note said current share prices already reflected part of the sector’s high growth. It cited only 7% upside for TVS, compared with 43% for Mahindra and 27% for UNOMINDA, suggesting that the latter two were not yet fully priced for the outlook.
Nomura listed the following catalysts: rainfall and monsoon developments, which are important for rural demand; festival-season sales data, with this year’s third-quarter festival season delayed; changes in Maruti’s order book and inventory, including 160k pending deliveries and 16 days of inventory; whether monthly EV-penetration data continue to rise; whether Mahindra can sustain EV sales of 7–8k units per month; and the monthly sales performance of Tata’s new Sierra EV model.
Electric-vehicle penetration continued to rise. PV EV penetration reached 7.7% in July, while 2W EV penetration reached 11.2%. Nomura said India’s EV market is at an inflection point in adoption.
Maruti Suzuki’s domestic PV sales rose 42.4% to 196.2k units. Tata Motors’ PV EV sales increased 114% year over year to 15.2k units, with EVs accounting for 24.3% of its PV sales. Hyundai India’s exports substantially exceeded expectations, rising 31.4% versus an expectation of 13k units. Ather Energy’s retail sales rose 59.2% year over year to 28.4k units.
Nomura’s preferred stocks were Mahindra (MM IN), Hyundai India, Ather Energy, TVS Motors, Sona BLW and UNOMINDA, all of which it rated Buy. It also cited potential upside of 15% for Hyundai India, 17% for Ather Energy, 7% for TVS Motors, 10% for Sona BLW and 27% for UNOMINDA.
Nomura identified several risks. Rainfall remained 12% below normal, which could weigh on rural demand. Growth could also slow in 2HFY27F because of a high base.
The note’s conclusion was that strong Indian auto demand, combined with an EV-penetration inflection point, favored Mahindra, Hyundai India and companies across the EV supply chain, while the market should monitor second-half base effects and uncertainty around rural demand.
Nomura viewed Mahindra, Hyundai India, Ather Energy, Tata Motors, TVS Motors, Sona BLW and UNOMINDA as beneficiaries. It also said the broader Indian EV supply chain would benefit, citing PV penetration of 7.7% and 2W penetration of 11.2% as evidence that the inflection point had been confirmed. It identified MHCV commercial vehicles, including TMCV and VECV, as under pressure because they came in below expectations, along with tractor and rural-demand-linked companies because of insufficient rainfall.
The note said current share prices already reflected part of the sector’s high growth. It cited only 7% upside for TVS, compared with 43% for Mahindra and 27% for UNOMINDA, suggesting that the latter two were not yet fully priced for the outlook.
Nomura listed the following catalysts: rainfall and monsoon developments, which are important for rural demand; festival-season sales data, with this year’s third-quarter festival season delayed; changes in Maruti’s order book and inventory, including 160k pending deliveries and 16 days of inventory; whether monthly EV-penetration data continue to rise; whether Mahindra can sustain EV sales of 7–8k units per month; and the monthly sales performance of Tata’s new Sierra EV model.