Kioxia’s June-Quarter Results Miss Expectations, but NAND Supply Outlook Remains Positive
Kioxia’s June-quarter non-GAAP revenue was ¥1.8 trillion and operating profit was ¥1.3 trillion, both below market expectations.
Kioxia’s June-quarter non-GAAP revenue was ¥1.8 trillion and operating profit was ¥1.3 trillion, both below market expectations. The shortfall was attributed to logistics-related costs and compensation provisions.
For the September quarter, Kioxia guided to revenue of ¥2.4 trillion. The company expects a NAND supply shortage in calendar 2027 and plans to conduct share repurchases of up to ¥800 billion.
Morgan Stanley said the earnings shortfall was caused by supply bottlenecks, which in its view reinforces the positive outlook for NAND industry supply and demand. The note said the bottlenecks indicate tight capacity, while the improving industry balance and large-scale buyback demonstrate management confidence.
Morgan Stanley said the market may not fully recognize the NAND upcycle and that the supply-shortage thesis may not yet be fully priced in. It maintained Kioxia as its key name discussed, citing earnings resilience under capacity constraints and potential for capital returns. The note characterized the setup as favorable for Kioxia and said an excessive market reaction to the short-term miss could create an opportunity.
Key catalysts identified in the note are Kioxia’s formal September-quarter results, NAND price trends and the pace of share-repurchase execution.
For the September quarter, Kioxia guided to revenue of ¥2.4 trillion. The company expects a NAND supply shortage in calendar 2027 and plans to conduct share repurchases of up to ¥800 billion.
Morgan Stanley said the earnings shortfall was caused by supply bottlenecks, which in its view reinforces the positive outlook for NAND industry supply and demand. The note said the bottlenecks indicate tight capacity, while the improving industry balance and large-scale buyback demonstrate management confidence.
Morgan Stanley said the market may not fully recognize the NAND upcycle and that the supply-shortage thesis may not yet be fully priced in. It maintained Kioxia as its key name discussed, citing earnings resilience under capacity constraints and potential for capital returns. The note characterized the setup as favorable for Kioxia and said an excessive market reaction to the short-term miss could create an opportunity.
Key catalysts identified in the note are Kioxia’s formal September-quarter results, NAND price trends and the pace of share-repurchase execution.