Citi sees iron ore price floor near $85 a ton
Citi said the iron ore industry’s key cost-support level is around $85 a ton. At that price, about 6% of seaborne supply would face a risk of production cuts or generate only low-single-digit profit margins. The bank said iron ore producers’ breakeven prices continue to rise. Citi estimates the industry’s breakeven price at $66 a ton, up 7% from its previous update in May 2025. “The curve indicates that although margins at major Australian and Brazilian producers remain healthy, the profitability of higher-cost producers is facing increasing pressure,” Citi said. Citi said it has a neutral view of iron ore prices in the near term and forecasts a price of $100 a ton over the next zero to three months.
Citi said the iron ore industry’s key cost-support level is around $85 a ton. At that price, about 6% of seaborne supply would face a risk of production cuts or generate only low-single-digit profit margins.
The bank said iron ore producers’ breakeven prices continue to rise. Citi estimates the industry’s breakeven price at $66 a ton, up 7% from its previous update in May 2025.
“The curve indicates that although margins at major Australian and Brazilian producers remain healthy, the profitability of higher-cost producers is facing increasing pressure,” Citi said.
Citi said it has a neutral view of iron ore prices in the near term and forecasts a price of $100 a ton over the next zero to three months.
The bank said iron ore producers’ breakeven prices continue to rise. Citi estimates the industry’s breakeven price at $66 a ton, up 7% from its previous update in May 2025.
“The curve indicates that although margins at major Australian and Brazilian producers remain healthy, the profitability of higher-cost producers is facing increasing pressure,” Citi said.
Citi said it has a neutral view of iron ore prices in the near term and forecasts a price of $100 a ton over the next zero to three months.