SpaceX’s First Quarterly Report Beats Expectations, but Its Bigger Ambitions Need Time to Prove Out: HSBC Maintains Hold
HSBC maintained its Hold rating on SpaceX (SPCX.US) after the company released its first quarterly results following its IPO.
HSBC maintained its Hold rating on SpaceX (SPCX.US) after the company released its first quarterly results following its IPO.
The main change was a strong Q2 showing. Revenue was $7.8 billion, up 92% year over year and 13% above market expectations. The operating loss was just $143 million, far better than the $1.6 billion loss the market had expected. HSBC attributed the performance mainly to high-margin AI computing contracts with Anthropic and Google, along with new Connectivity contracts.
HSBC forecasts total revenue of $41.4 billion in 2026. It expects the AI segment’s EBITDA to improve from negative $1.237 billion in 2025 to positive $10.656 billion in 2026.
The underlying logic is that Starlink has become a relatively mature business: EBITDA less capex reached $2 billion in the first half of 2026. However, HSBC remains skeptical of SpaceX’s broader ambitions, including using next-generation satellites to replace terrestrial telecommunications. The bank said those goals have a low probability of being achieved at scale because of technological and regulatory constraints. Its valuation model does not include orbital data centers or more than 10 GW of computing capacity.
In summary, SpaceX’s first quarterly report was stronger than expected, with AI and Connectivity providing powerful growth engines. But HSBC believes the current share price has already priced in, or even exceeded, the company’s short-term fundamentals. The orbital data-center and more-than-10-GW computing ambitions may require years of validation, while the Hold rating and the 6.6% downside indication suggest that valuation is already elevated.
The company’s 2026E EV/Sales multiple is 38.7x. HSBC believes the market has already priced in substantial optimism, while the unfulfilled ambitions of orbital data centers and SpaceX becoming a replacement telecommunications operator create execution and downside risks.
Key catalysts are quarterly trends in Starlink users and average revenue per user; expansion of AI computing contracts, including new customer signings; progress in reducing Starship launch costs; progress on the planned orbital-data-center deployment in 2027; and the expansion of computing capacity from 1.4 GW to more than 10 GW.
The main change was a strong Q2 showing. Revenue was $7.8 billion, up 92% year over year and 13% above market expectations. The operating loss was just $143 million, far better than the $1.6 billion loss the market had expected. HSBC attributed the performance mainly to high-margin AI computing contracts with Anthropic and Google, along with new Connectivity contracts.
HSBC forecasts total revenue of $41.4 billion in 2026. It expects the AI segment’s EBITDA to improve from negative $1.237 billion in 2025 to positive $10.656 billion in 2026.
The underlying logic is that Starlink has become a relatively mature business: EBITDA less capex reached $2 billion in the first half of 2026. However, HSBC remains skeptical of SpaceX’s broader ambitions, including using next-generation satellites to replace terrestrial telecommunications. The bank said those goals have a low probability of being achieved at scale because of technological and regulatory constraints. Its valuation model does not include orbital data centers or more than 10 GW of computing capacity.
In summary, SpaceX’s first quarterly report was stronger than expected, with AI and Connectivity providing powerful growth engines. But HSBC believes the current share price has already priced in, or even exceeded, the company’s short-term fundamentals. The orbital data-center and more-than-10-GW computing ambitions may require years of validation, while the Hold rating and the 6.6% downside indication suggest that valuation is already elevated.
The company’s 2026E EV/Sales multiple is 38.7x. HSBC believes the market has already priced in substantial optimism, while the unfulfilled ambitions of orbital data centers and SpaceX becoming a replacement telecommunications operator create execution and downside risks.
Key catalysts are quarterly trends in Starlink users and average revenue per user; expansion of AI computing contracts, including new customer signings; progress in reducing Starship launch costs; progress on the planned orbital-data-center deployment in 2027; and the expansion of computing capacity from 1.4 GW to more than 10 GW.