Kalshi Traders See 66% Chance S&P 500 Tops 8,000 This Year
Traders on prediction platform Kalshi estimate that the S&P 500 has about a 66% chance of reaching 8,000 points in 2026. After a market pullback from late June through July, a renewed rally in AI stocks helped drive the broad index up more than 5% in just four trading days, strengthening the bullish outlook. The S&P 500 ended a four-day advance of more than 5.5% on Wednesday. But the index's consecutive record highs have prompted participants in prediction markets to raise their expectations for its next target. Kalshi speculators now put the odds of the S&P 500 breaking above 8,000 this year at two-thirds. As of Wednesday's close, the index was about 3.6% below that level. Kalshi offers contracts that allow traders to bet on whether the S&P 500 will reach various levels in 2026. The platform uses financial-market data to determine the settlement of those contracts. The S&P 500 had rebounded from its lows in April and May after the U.S.-Iran conflict weighed on markets. From late June into July, however, investors continued to reduce their holdings of AI-focused growth stocks that had previously surged, leaving the index choppy. Rotation into other sectors partly masked the market's internal divergence. Several positive catalysts drove the latest four-day rally, including easing tensions in the Middle East and between the United States and Iran, strong earnings-season results, and the potential liquidation of the Situational Awareness Fund run by Leopold Aschenbrenner, which prompted a reallocation of capital. Most analysts do not view the June and July pullback as the end of the AI bull market. Instead, they regard it as a healthy correction and expect the current bull market to rebuild momentum for another advance. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth, wrote in a research note on Tuesday: "Our investment logic remains unchanged. Corporate earnings continue to be the central guidepost, earnings expectations are still being revised higher, economic growth remains resilient, and market participation has improved. Typically, that kind of environment is not consistent with the end of a bull market." Bullish sentiment continues to build. Kalshi traders estimate a one-third chance that the S&P 500 will reach 8,200 this year.
The S&P 500 ended a four-day advance of more than 5.5% on Wednesday. But the index's consecutive record highs have prompted participants in prediction markets to raise their expectations for its next target.
Kalshi speculators now put the odds of the S&P 500 breaking above 8,000 this year at two-thirds. As of Wednesday's close, the index was about 3.6% below that level.
Kalshi offers contracts that allow traders to bet on whether the S&P 500 will reach various levels in 2026. The platform uses financial-market data to determine the settlement of those contracts.
The S&P 500 had rebounded from its lows in April and May after the U.S.-Iran conflict weighed on markets. From late June into July, however, investors continued to reduce their holdings of AI-focused growth stocks that had previously surged, leaving the index choppy. Rotation into other sectors partly masked the market's internal divergence.
Several positive catalysts drove the latest four-day rally, including easing tensions in the Middle East and between the United States and Iran, strong earnings-season results, and the potential liquidation of the Situational Awareness Fund run by Leopold Aschenbrenner, which prompted a reallocation of capital.
Most analysts do not view the June and July pullback as the end of the AI bull market. Instead, they regard it as a healthy correction and expect the current bull market to rebuild momentum for another advance.
Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth, wrote in a research note on Tuesday: "Our investment logic remains unchanged. Corporate earnings continue to be the central guidepost, earnings expectations are still being revised higher, economic growth remains resilient, and market participation has improved. Typically, that kind of environment is not consistent with the end of a bull market."
Bullish sentiment continues to build. Kalshi traders estimate a one-third chance that the S&P 500 will reach 8,200 this year.