U.S. stocks rise more than 1% as September Fed rate-hike odds reach 58.4%
In U.S. trading on Aug. 4, all three major stock indexes gained more than 1%. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose 1.79% to 7,736.52, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.71% to 54,085.88, and the Nasdaq (NDAQ) advanced 2.59% to 26,584.99. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.63% on Aug. 4, while the two-year Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to Federal Reserve policy rates, was 4.20%. Among heavily traded U.S. stocks, Nvidia (NVDA) rose 2.57%, Alphabet Class A (GOOGL) gained 1.11%, Alphabet Class C (GOOG) rose 0.77%, Apple (AAPL) advanced 1.96%, Microsoft (MSFT) gained 1.06%, Amazon (AMZN) fell 2.32%, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) rose 2.70%, Meta Platforms (META) declined 0.39%, Tesla (TSLA) gained 1.64%, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) jumped 7.00%, and Intel (INTC) surged 10.84%. In Europe, France's CAC 40 (FCHI) rose 0.61% to 8,666.63, Britain's FTSE 100 (FTSE) gained 0.20% to 10,879.38, Germany's DAX (GDAXI) advanced 0.77% to 26,202.35, and Russia's RTS (RTS) fell 1.02% to 881.14. Overnight, Hang Seng Tech Index futures rose 0.35%, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.35%, and the FTSE China A50 Index gained 1.10%. Among major Chinese companies listed in the United States or Hong Kong, Tencent Holdings (HK0700) fell 0.57%, Alibaba Group (BABA) rose 1.30%, PDD Holdings (PDD) gained 0.98%, NetEase (NTES) declined 0.75%, Baidu (BIDU) fell 0.43%, Trip.com Group (TCOM) declined 0.97%, Li Auto (LI) fell 1.98%, and NIO (NIO) declined 0.94%. In commodities futures, COMEX silver rose 1.77% to $58.83 an ounce, COMEX gold gained 0.93% to $4,088.10 an ounce, West Texas Intermediate crude fell 9.22% to $79.98 a barrel, Brent crude declined 7.09% to $83.70 a barrel, and LME copper rose 0.78% to $13,943.57 a metric ton. According to CME FedWatch, the probability that the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged through September is 41.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 58.4%. Through October, the probability of no rate change is 30.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 53.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 15.5%. Two people familiar with the matter said the U.S. government has told leading artificial-intelligence companies that it will not conduct safety testing on open-weight AI models. (Cailian Press) Elon Musk said Starship is expected to be able to safely carry people by the end of 2027. (Cailian Press) AMD Chief Executive Lisa Su expects data-center sales to double by 2027. (Blue Whale News) An OpenAI model crossed boundaries in a third-party cybersecurity test. (Cailian Press) Musk said SpaceX (SPCX) is building a large enterprise sales team to secure more corporate contracts for Starlink. (Blue Whale News) Musk said Grok 4.6 is expected to be released next week and that Grok 5 is planned for release this year. He said Grok 5 will be trained using SpaceX (SPCX) data. SpaceX is expected to have more than 2 gigawatts of computing capacity by year-end and could be closer to 10 gigawatts than 5 gigawatts by the end of 2027. (Cailian Press) Musk said SpaceX (SPCX) has had another milestone year so far. (Sina Finance) AMD reported second-quarter revenue of $11.54 billion, compared with an estimate of $11.31 billion. The company forecast third-quarter revenue of $12.7 billion to $13.3 billion, compared with an estimate of $12.51 billion. SpaceX (SPCX) is working with Nvidia (NVDA) to develop the Starmind AI1 satellite computing payload. (Sina Finance)
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.63% on Aug. 4, while the two-year Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to Federal Reserve policy rates, was 4.20%.
Among heavily traded U.S. stocks, Nvidia (NVDA) rose 2.57%, Alphabet Class A (GOOGL) gained 1.11%, Alphabet Class C (GOOG) rose 0.77%, Apple (AAPL) advanced 1.96%, Microsoft (MSFT) gained 1.06%, Amazon (AMZN) fell 2.32%, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) rose 2.70%, Meta Platforms (META) declined 0.39%, Tesla (TSLA) gained 1.64%, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) jumped 7.00%, and Intel (INTC) surged 10.84%.
In Europe, France's CAC 40 (FCHI) rose 0.61% to 8,666.63, Britain's FTSE 100 (FTSE) gained 0.20% to 10,879.38, Germany's DAX (GDAXI) advanced 0.77% to 26,202.35, and Russia's RTS (RTS) fell 1.02% to 881.14.
Overnight, Hang Seng Tech Index futures rose 0.35%, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.35%, and the FTSE China A50 Index gained 1.10%.
Among major Chinese companies listed in the United States or Hong Kong, Tencent Holdings (HK0700) fell 0.57%, Alibaba Group (BABA) rose 1.30%, PDD Holdings (PDD) gained 0.98%, NetEase (NTES) declined 0.75%, Baidu (BIDU) fell 0.43%, Trip.com Group (TCOM) declined 0.97%, Li Auto (LI) fell 1.98%, and NIO (NIO) declined 0.94%.
In commodities futures, COMEX silver rose 1.77% to $58.83 an ounce, COMEX gold gained 0.93% to $4,088.10 an ounce, West Texas Intermediate crude fell 9.22% to $79.98 a barrel, Brent crude declined 7.09% to $83.70 a barrel, and LME copper rose 0.78% to $13,943.57 a metric ton.
According to CME FedWatch, the probability that the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged through September is 41.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 58.4%. Through October, the probability of no rate change is 30.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 53.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 15.5%.
Two people familiar with the matter said the U.S. government has told leading artificial-intelligence companies that it will not conduct safety testing on open-weight AI models. (Cailian Press)
Elon Musk said Starship is expected to be able to safely carry people by the end of 2027. (Cailian Press)
AMD Chief Executive Lisa Su expects data-center sales to double by 2027. (Blue Whale News)
An OpenAI model crossed boundaries in a third-party cybersecurity test. (Cailian Press)
Musk said SpaceX (SPCX) is building a large enterprise sales team to secure more corporate contracts for Starlink. (Blue Whale News)
Musk said Grok 4.6 is expected to be released next week and that Grok 5 is planned for release this year. He said Grok 5 will be trained using SpaceX (SPCX) data. SpaceX is expected to have more than 2 gigawatts of computing capacity by year-end and could be closer to 10 gigawatts than 5 gigawatts by the end of 2027. (Cailian Press)
Musk said SpaceX (SPCX) has had another milestone year so far. (Sina Finance)
AMD reported second-quarter revenue of $11.54 billion, compared with an estimate of $11.31 billion. The company forecast third-quarter revenue of $12.7 billion to $13.3 billion, compared with an estimate of $12.51 billion.
SpaceX (SPCX) is working with Nvidia (NVDA) to develop the Starmind AI1 satellite computing payload. (Sina Finance)