The Trade Desk shares plunge as earnings disappoint, prompting Wall Street downgrades
The Trade Desk, identified in the source as TTD, once delivered extraordinary gains. From May 2018 through early December 2024, its stock surged more than 2,600%, while its market capitalization exceeded $67 billion at its peak. But the trend reversed sharply beginning Dec. 5, 2024. As of Aug. 6, 2026, the stock had fallen nearly 90% cumulatively, reducing the company’s market capitalization to $8.3 billion. For a company such as TTD, revenue is more important than profit. Its valuation is based largely on revenue growth and market share, and the company’s 3% growth represents a significant slowdown from its long-term growth history. TTD’s revenue grew 15.55% over the past 12 months, indicating that the deceleration in the latest quarter was particularly pronounced. Management said the weak performance reflected both macroeconomic pressure and execution issues, making it harder for investors to overlook the earnings miss. In the second quarter, TTD announced several partnerships. Dentsu Group selected the company as the first DSP partner for its new streaming retail-data business. TTD also established integration partnerships with several travel and hospitality platforms, including Booking.com, Agoda, Kayak, Priceline, Marriott, Uber and United Airlines. For the third quarter, TTD expects revenue of at least $650 million and adjusted EBITDA of about $160 million. That revenue outlook implies an approximately 12% year-over-year decline in third-quarter revenue—a significant reversal for a company long known for growth. TTD management said the guidance reflects limited visibility and assumes no meaningful improvement in the macroeconomic environment during the quarter. The company also cited several product and platform initiatives intended to support future growth, including usability upgrades for Zuma, a measurement framework, Audience Unlimited and increased enterprise-customer adoption of the Kokai platform. Wall Street firms sharply cut their price targets After the earnings report, Baird downgraded TTD from Outperform to Neutral and cut its price target from $27 per share to $9 per share. Baird said TTD’s second-quarter results were far below the market consensus and that its third-quarter revenue and adjusted-EBITDA guidance were also significantly below consensus. The firm cited a combination of factors, including a difficult macroeconomic environment, intensifying industry competition and major internal execution challenges. Those difficulties have been reflected in the stock, which has fallen 80% over the past year. Baird said the recovery could be lengthy following a major reset to earnings forecasts and another blow to management’s credibility. The firm said it could not identify a reason to recommend the stock given the limited visibility at this stage. Baird added that TTD has made major leadership changes and continues to pursue product innovation, which could potentially have a positive effect over time. Meanwhile, Raymond James downgraded TTD from Market Perform to Underperform, citing a third-quarter outlook that was weaker than expected. Analysts said factors outside the company’s control had outweighed the areas it could control, making a return to growth especially difficult. As revenue continues to weaken, margins have become a concern. Raymond James said that although TTD’s stock has recently declined, its valuation multiple still has room to contract further. Jefferies also cut its price target from $20 per share to $12 per share. Truist Securities downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold, citing concerns about macroeconomic pressure and internal execution issues. Guggenheim downgraded TTD from Buy to Neutral and sharply reduced its price target from $25 per share to $12 per share. Guggenheim said continued management turnover, agency conflicts and insufficient product consistency all challenge the foundation of TTD’s recovery. CEO Jeff Green’s statements expressing confidence in a recovery remain focused on the company’s product advantages, AI integration and platform neutrality.
For a company such as TTD, revenue is more important than profit. Its valuation is based largely on revenue growth and market share, and the company’s 3% growth represents a significant slowdown from its long-term growth history. TTD’s revenue grew 15.55% over the past 12 months, indicating that the deceleration in the latest quarter was particularly pronounced. Management said the weak performance reflected both macroeconomic pressure and execution issues, making it harder for investors to overlook the earnings miss.
In the second quarter, TTD announced several partnerships. Dentsu Group selected the company as the first DSP partner for its new streaming retail-data business. TTD also established integration partnerships with several travel and hospitality platforms, including Booking.com, Agoda, Kayak, Priceline, Marriott, Uber and United Airlines.
For the third quarter, TTD expects revenue of at least $650 million and adjusted EBITDA of about $160 million. That revenue outlook implies an approximately 12% year-over-year decline in third-quarter revenue—a significant reversal for a company long known for growth.
TTD management said the guidance reflects limited visibility and assumes no meaningful improvement in the macroeconomic environment during the quarter. The company also cited several product and platform initiatives intended to support future growth, including usability upgrades for Zuma, a measurement framework, Audience Unlimited and increased enterprise-customer adoption of the Kokai platform.
Wall Street firms sharply cut their price targets
After the earnings report, Baird downgraded TTD from Outperform to Neutral and cut its price target from $27 per share to $9 per share.
Baird said TTD’s second-quarter results were far below the market consensus and that its third-quarter revenue and adjusted-EBITDA guidance were also significantly below consensus. The firm cited a combination of factors, including a difficult macroeconomic environment, intensifying industry competition and major internal execution challenges. Those difficulties have been reflected in the stock, which has fallen 80% over the past year.
Baird said the recovery could be lengthy following a major reset to earnings forecasts and another blow to management’s credibility. The firm said it could not identify a reason to recommend the stock given the limited visibility at this stage. Baird added that TTD has made major leadership changes and continues to pursue product innovation, which could potentially have a positive effect over time.
Meanwhile, Raymond James downgraded TTD from Market Perform to Underperform, citing a third-quarter outlook that was weaker than expected. Analysts said factors outside the company’s control had outweighed the areas it could control, making a return to growth especially difficult.
As revenue continues to weaken, margins have become a concern. Raymond James said that although TTD’s stock has recently declined, its valuation multiple still has room to contract further.
Jefferies also cut its price target from $20 per share to $12 per share. Truist Securities downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold, citing concerns about macroeconomic pressure and internal execution issues. Guggenheim downgraded TTD from Buy to Neutral and sharply reduced its price target from $25 per share to $12 per share.
Guggenheim said continued management turnover, agency conflicts and insufficient product consistency all challenge the foundation of TTD’s recovery. CEO Jeff Green’s statements expressing confidence in a recovery remain focused on the company’s product advantages, AI integration and platform neutrality.