Space X’s Market Value Swings by More Than $300 Billion as Musk Returns to Execution Mode
SpaceX is nominally a rocket company, but these days it feels more like a roller coaster. Last week, CEO Elon Musk watched the company’s stock plunge nearly 14% in a single day—and that still was not SpaceX’s worst performance since its IPO. By Friday, the stock had rebounded more than 20% from where it opened the week. In other words, the company’s market value swung by more than $300 billion. For most CEOs, that kind of trading would be difficult to withstand. For Musk, it is a recurring reminder that he has returned to the hard work of execution and must deliver on the ambitious promises he previously made for SpaceX. The company completed the largest IPO in its history in June, when market sentiment was strong. Now it must return to the realities of carrying out its strategy. That level of volatility was the kind of distraction that troubled Musk in the years when he was running the company and struggling to make it profitable. Those experiences also helped persuade him to delay taking SpaceX public for many years. The pressure intensified Tuesday evening, when SpaceX released its first earnings report since going public. On Thursday, the lockup period expired for some insiders and pre-IPO shareholders. As the stock fell Tuesday evening, Musk joked: “As the saying goes ... this is not rocket science, but to be honest, doing rocket science is exactly what we do every day.” The quarterly results beat Wall Street’s expectations, but the company’s huge spending on artificial intelligence unsettled some investors. On the investor call, Musk shifted into salesman mode, with the world’s richest person displaying an unusually earnest “please believe in us” attitude. Within a few minutes, he offered a series of fanciful forecasts and repeatedly raised expectations, echoing the signature style of his past Tesla earnings calls. For years, Tesla investors have watched those calls closely; Musk’s comments, tone and emotional swings often overshadow the company’s formally disclosed financial data. Musk told investors that SpaceX’s AI computing capacity would exceed 2 gigawatts by year-end and approach 10 gigawatts next year, rather than 5 gigawatts. He also said that, in less than 10 years, the company’s Starlink satellite-internet business would carry most of the world’s internet traffic. “Another thing worth mentioning is that our internal expectation for when we will reach $1 trillion in revenue has moved forward from 2031 to 2030,” Musk said. For context, $1 trillion in revenue is roughly equivalent to Nvidia’s total revenue in its most recent fiscal year. He then added: “There is also a meaningful probability that this target could be reached as early as 2029.” The company, which has not yet turned a profit, generated $7.8 billion in revenue last quarter. Musk’s ability to rally investors around a vision of the future is one of his strengths as a leader. Using that ability, he has raised enormous sums for several cash-burning companies. It has also drawn criticism from people who say he is pulling ordinary retail investors along with him. Musk did not express certainty that SpaceX would reach $1 trillion in revenue in 2029, but he also did not reject the possibility. Similarly, in an interview with The Economist, Musk acknowledged that he had become overly involved in partisan politics in 2024. Days later, Axios reported that Musk planned to spend heavily again in this year’s midterm elections. Clearly, he could still become distracted and step away from his core duties. Last week, the reality for Musk was that SpaceX’s tangible achievements received little attention compared with the grand narratives he likes to promote. Starlink’s user base had doubled from a year earlier to 12 million, but that accomplishment paled beside visions of surviving on Mars and the AI hype heavily promoted on social media. Earlier, after Musk demonstrated that some of his seemingly far-fetched goals could actually be achieved, Tesla investors were willing to tolerate his various flights of imagination. The market rewarded Tesla by valuing it not simply as a car company but as a robotics company, even though Tesla remained behind in its autonomous robotaxi program. The supplied source ends mid-sentence at this point. Musk is now trying to apply the same logic to SpaceX. He no longer wants to define the company solely as a rocket manufacturer; he also wants to turn it into an emerging AI giant comparable with OpenAI and Anthropic. As much as 86% of SpaceX’s recent capital spending has gone to AI. By Musk’s own estimate, colonizing Mars would require roughly $1 trillion even if a giant Starship could solve the delays; the source does not specify the remainder of the sentence beyond that condition. Musk’s team says investment in AI data centers could pay for itself quickly, perhaps in less than a year. But not everyone is buying the AI story. Short sellers—investors who seek to profit from a decline in the stock price—have begun targeting SpaceX, further amplifying the stock’s volatility. In that respect, SpaceX increasingly resembles Tesla. That is also why Musk’s demeanor Tuesday was unusual. In response to analysts’ questions, he was notably patient. That was a sharp contrast with memorable moments from past Tesla earnings calls, when he would become angry and even berate questions focused on the company’s core business as boring or stupid. Instead, when faced with a complicated question, Musk volunteered an explanation and showed sympathy for the analyst’s difficulty. “Obviously, if someone is going to build a financial model, they have to put some parameters into it,” he said. At the same time, he asked investors for patience in his own way. “‘Rocket science’ is a phrase specifically used to describe technology that is extremely difficult. There is a reason for that. I’m telling you, every time a rocket launches, deep down it wants to blow itself to pieces.” No one wants that outcome. Musk does not, and neither do investors. After all, they are already aboard this market roller coaster and can only ride it out.
Last week, CEO Elon Musk watched the company’s stock plunge nearly 14% in a single day—and that still was not SpaceX’s worst performance since its IPO. By Friday, the stock had rebounded more than 20% from where it opened the week.
In other words, the company’s market value swung by more than $300 billion.
For most CEOs, that kind of trading would be difficult to withstand. For Musk, it is a recurring reminder that he has returned to the hard work of execution and must deliver on the ambitious promises he previously made for SpaceX. The company completed the largest IPO in its history in June, when market sentiment was strong. Now it must return to the realities of carrying out its strategy.
That level of volatility was the kind of distraction that troubled Musk in the years when he was running the company and struggling to make it profitable. Those experiences also helped persuade him to delay taking SpaceX public for many years.
The pressure intensified Tuesday evening, when SpaceX released its first earnings report since going public. On Thursday, the lockup period expired for some insiders and pre-IPO shareholders.
As the stock fell Tuesday evening, Musk joked: “As the saying goes ... this is not rocket science, but to be honest, doing rocket science is exactly what we do every day.”
The quarterly results beat Wall Street’s expectations, but the company’s huge spending on artificial intelligence unsettled some investors. On the investor call, Musk shifted into salesman mode, with the world’s richest person displaying an unusually earnest “please believe in us” attitude.
Within a few minutes, he offered a series of fanciful forecasts and repeatedly raised expectations, echoing the signature style of his past Tesla earnings calls. For years, Tesla investors have watched those calls closely; Musk’s comments, tone and emotional swings often overshadow the company’s formally disclosed financial data.
Musk told investors that SpaceX’s AI computing capacity would exceed 2 gigawatts by year-end and approach 10 gigawatts next year, rather than 5 gigawatts. He also said that, in less than 10 years, the company’s Starlink satellite-internet business would carry most of the world’s internet traffic.
“Another thing worth mentioning is that our internal expectation for when we will reach $1 trillion in revenue has moved forward from 2031 to 2030,” Musk said.
For context, $1 trillion in revenue is roughly equivalent to Nvidia’s total revenue in its most recent fiscal year.
He then added: “There is also a meaningful probability that this target could be reached as early as 2029.”
The company, which has not yet turned a profit, generated $7.8 billion in revenue last quarter.
Musk’s ability to rally investors around a vision of the future is one of his strengths as a leader. Using that ability, he has raised enormous sums for several cash-burning companies.
It has also drawn criticism from people who say he is pulling ordinary retail investors along with him. Musk did not express certainty that SpaceX would reach $1 trillion in revenue in 2029, but he also did not reject the possibility.
Similarly, in an interview with The Economist, Musk acknowledged that he had become overly involved in partisan politics in 2024. Days later, Axios reported that Musk planned to spend heavily again in this year’s midterm elections. Clearly, he could still become distracted and step away from his core duties.
Last week, the reality for Musk was that SpaceX’s tangible achievements received little attention compared with the grand narratives he likes to promote. Starlink’s user base had doubled from a year earlier to 12 million, but that accomplishment paled beside visions of surviving on Mars and the AI hype heavily promoted on social media.
Earlier, after Musk demonstrated that some of his seemingly far-fetched goals could actually be achieved, Tesla investors were willing to tolerate his various flights of imagination.
The market rewarded Tesla by valuing it not simply as a car company but as a robotics company, even though Tesla remained behind in its autonomous robotaxi program. The supplied source ends mid-sentence at this point.
Musk is now trying to apply the same logic to SpaceX. He no longer wants to define the company solely as a rocket manufacturer; he also wants to turn it into an emerging AI giant comparable with OpenAI and Anthropic.
As much as 86% of SpaceX’s recent capital spending has gone to AI. By Musk’s own estimate, colonizing Mars would require roughly $1 trillion even if a giant Starship could solve the delays; the source does not specify the remainder of the sentence beyond that condition.
Musk’s team says investment in AI data centers could pay for itself quickly, perhaps in less than a year.
But not everyone is buying the AI story. Short sellers—investors who seek to profit from a decline in the stock price—have begun targeting SpaceX, further amplifying the stock’s volatility. In that respect, SpaceX increasingly resembles Tesla.
That is also why Musk’s demeanor Tuesday was unusual. In response to analysts’ questions, he was notably patient. That was a sharp contrast with memorable moments from past Tesla earnings calls, when he would become angry and even berate questions focused on the company’s core business as boring or stupid.
Instead, when faced with a complicated question, Musk volunteered an explanation and showed sympathy for the analyst’s difficulty. “Obviously, if someone is going to build a financial model, they have to put some parameters into it,” he said.
At the same time, he asked investors for patience in his own way. “‘Rocket science’ is a phrase specifically used to describe technology that is extremely difficult. There is a reason for that. I’m telling you, every time a rocket launches, deep down it wants to blow itself to pieces.”
No one wants that outcome. Musk does not, and neither do investors. After all, they are already aboard this market roller coaster and can only ride it out.