WMT V3 technical snapshot
price=112.45500183105469 hma21=112.16002859602759 hma55=110.28398507517376 sma200=118.16857463836669
price=112.45500183105469 hma21=112.16002859602759 hma55=110.28398507517376 sma200=118.16857463836669
stock_deep_dive
WMT V3 technical snapshot
$WMT: evidence-based stock deep dive
WALMART INC.
CORE QUESTION
Can WALMART INC. sustain growth and operating leverage strongly enough to support current expectations? Sector-specific lens: Are consumers sustaining demand without heavier promotional pressure?
WHAT CHANGED
• No sufficiently specific new change was verified.
OPERATING EVIDENCE
• Revenue: $177.75B in Q1 2026; +7.3% YoY.
• Net income: $5.33B in Q1 2026; +18.8% YoY.
• Diluted EPS: $0.67 in Q1 2026; +19.6% YoY.
• Inventory: $62.57B in Q1 2026 period end; +8.9% YoY.
• Operating income: $7.49B in Q1 2026; +5.0% YoY.
• Current lease liability: $1.66B in Q1 2026 period end; +8.0% YoY.
EXPECTATIONS AND VALUATION
• trailing P/E 39.6x; forward P/E 34.3x; EV/EBITDA 21.6x; P/S 1.2x.
• Next-year Yahoo consensus snapshot for period ending 2028-01-31: EPS estimate $3.28 (39 analysts); revenue estimate $787.09B (35 analysts).
INSTITUTIONAL EVIDENCE
• 2026-07-19 — [INDUSTRY CONTEXT] The era of smart e-commerce is coming and will contribute 6% of incremental GMV in the next five years. Amazon and Alibaba are the kings
(Morgan Stanley)
Morgan Stanley released an in-depth report, pointing out that AI-driven agents are becoming personal digital shopping assistants. It is expected that more than 20% of
e-commerce GMV will be affected in the next five years, bringing about a 6% increase in the total market size, pushing the scale of global e-commerce to reach 7 trillion US
dollars in 2030, and the CAGR from 2025 to 2030 will increase from the previous 7% to 9%.
• 2026-07-14 — [COMPANY-SPECIFIC] The market is overly worried about Walmart’s price war, and omni-channel profitability supports the rise in stock prices (Bernstein)
The report believes that the market's concerns about the impact of Walmart's price investment on profits are excessive, and the company can use tariff rebates to hedge costs and continue to gain market share. The unsubsidized EBIT profit margin of core U.S. e-commerce companies is expected to turn positive in FY 2030.
OFFICIAL COMPANY EVIDENCE
• 2026-05-21 — [SEC EXHIBIT 99.1] WALMART INC. filed an 8-K with the SEC — Exhibit 99.1 earnings release; reporting basis: mixed_reconciled.
• 2026-05-29 — [SEC FILING NOTICE] WALMART INC. filed a 10-Q with the SEC.
MARKET STRUCTURE
• Latest price $112.46; HMA21 $112.16; HMA55 $110.28; 200DMA $118.17.
EVIDENCE FOR
• Revenue changed +7.3% year over year in the latest comparable period.
• Net income changed +18.8% year over year, confirming the quality of the latest revenue trend.
• Price is above two of the three HMA21, HMA55 and 200DMA trend references.
• Forward P/E of 34.3x is below trailing P/E of 39.6x, implying expected earnings improvement.
• Operating income was 7,493,000,000 in Q1 2026, +5.0% year over year.
• Official operating disclosure: advertising up 36% •Membership fee revenue grew 17.4% globally •Gross profit rate up 6 bps, led by Walmart U.S.
• Official operating disclosure: •Sales strength led by grocery and general merchandise •Comp sales driven by increased transactions and unit volumes •eCommerce sales up
23% with continued strong growth in club-fulfilled pickup & delivery •Membership and other income grew 11%, driven by a 5.6% increase in membership fee revenue due to
steady growth in member counts, renewal rates, and Plus members; other income benefited from miscellaneous items •Inventory increased 14.9%, primarily related to higher
fuel costs and volumes, including fuel upstreaming with a strategic partner 1 See Supplemental Financial Information for additi
EVIDENCE AGAINST
• Institutional evidence: The report believes that the market's concerns about the impact of Walmart's price investment on profits are excessive, and the company can use
tariff rebates to hedge costs and continue to gain market share..
BOTTOM LINE
The evidence is mixed rather than one-directional. Official operating disclosure: advertising up 36% •Membership fee revenue grew 17.4% globally •Gross profit rate up 6 bps, led by Walmart U.S.
A key counterpoint: Institutional evidence: The report believes that the market's concerns about the impact of Walmart's price investment on profits are excessive, and the company can use tariff rebates to hedge costs and continue to gain market share.. The thesis should be updated only when the measurable watch conditions change.
WHAT WOULD CHANGE THE VIEW
• Check whether the next filing confirms the direction of inventory after Q1 2026 period end.
• Check whether the next filing confirms the direction of operating income after Q1 2026.
• A daily close below the nearest support cluster around $112.19 would weaken the price structure.
• A sustained reclaim of the nearest overhead trend reference around $118.17 would be an initial stabilization signal.
PUBLIC SOURCES
• WMT latest comparable SEC filing (2026-05-29): https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000104169.json
• WALMART INC. filed an 8-K with the SEC — Exhibit 99.1 earnings release (2026-05-21):
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/104169/000010416926000095/earningsreleasefy27q1.htm
• WALMART INC. filed a 10-Q with the SEC (2026-05-29): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/104169/000010416926000102/0000104169-26-000102-index.htm
#Stocks #Fundamentals #TechnicalAnalysis #WMT
WALMART INC.
CORE QUESTION
Can WALMART INC. sustain growth and operating leverage strongly enough to support current expectations? Sector-specific lens: Are consumers sustaining demand without heavier promotional pressure?
WHAT CHANGED
• No sufficiently specific new change was verified.
OPERATING EVIDENCE
• Revenue: $177.75B in Q1 2026; +7.3% YoY.
• Net income: $5.33B in Q1 2026; +18.8% YoY.
• Diluted EPS: $0.67 in Q1 2026; +19.6% YoY.
• Inventory: $62.57B in Q1 2026 period end; +8.9% YoY.
• Operating income: $7.49B in Q1 2026; +5.0% YoY.
• Current lease liability: $1.66B in Q1 2026 period end; +8.0% YoY.
EXPECTATIONS AND VALUATION
• trailing P/E 39.6x; forward P/E 34.3x; EV/EBITDA 21.6x; P/S 1.2x.
• Next-year Yahoo consensus snapshot for period ending 2028-01-31: EPS estimate $3.28 (39 analysts); revenue estimate $787.09B (35 analysts).
INSTITUTIONAL EVIDENCE
• 2026-07-19 — [INDUSTRY CONTEXT] The era of smart e-commerce is coming and will contribute 6% of incremental GMV in the next five years. Amazon and Alibaba are the kings
(Morgan Stanley)
Morgan Stanley released an in-depth report, pointing out that AI-driven agents are becoming personal digital shopping assistants. It is expected that more than 20% of
e-commerce GMV will be affected in the next five years, bringing about a 6% increase in the total market size, pushing the scale of global e-commerce to reach 7 trillion US
dollars in 2030, and the CAGR from 2025 to 2030 will increase from the previous 7% to 9%.
• 2026-07-14 — [COMPANY-SPECIFIC] The market is overly worried about Walmart’s price war, and omni-channel profitability supports the rise in stock prices (Bernstein)
The report believes that the market's concerns about the impact of Walmart's price investment on profits are excessive, and the company can use tariff rebates to hedge costs and continue to gain market share. The unsubsidized EBIT profit margin of core U.S. e-commerce companies is expected to turn positive in FY 2030.
OFFICIAL COMPANY EVIDENCE
• 2026-05-21 — [SEC EXHIBIT 99.1] WALMART INC. filed an 8-K with the SEC — Exhibit 99.1 earnings release; reporting basis: mixed_reconciled.
• 2026-05-29 — [SEC FILING NOTICE] WALMART INC. filed a 10-Q with the SEC.
MARKET STRUCTURE
• Latest price $112.46; HMA21 $112.16; HMA55 $110.28; 200DMA $118.17.
EVIDENCE FOR
• Revenue changed +7.3% year over year in the latest comparable period.
• Net income changed +18.8% year over year, confirming the quality of the latest revenue trend.
• Price is above two of the three HMA21, HMA55 and 200DMA trend references.
• Forward P/E of 34.3x is below trailing P/E of 39.6x, implying expected earnings improvement.
• Operating income was 7,493,000,000 in Q1 2026, +5.0% year over year.
• Official operating disclosure: advertising up 36% •Membership fee revenue grew 17.4% globally •Gross profit rate up 6 bps, led by Walmart U.S.
• Official operating disclosure: •Sales strength led by grocery and general merchandise •Comp sales driven by increased transactions and unit volumes •eCommerce sales up
23% with continued strong growth in club-fulfilled pickup & delivery •Membership and other income grew 11%, driven by a 5.6% increase in membership fee revenue due to
steady growth in member counts, renewal rates, and Plus members; other income benefited from miscellaneous items •Inventory increased 14.9%, primarily related to higher
fuel costs and volumes, including fuel upstreaming with a strategic partner 1 See Supplemental Financial Information for additi
EVIDENCE AGAINST
• Institutional evidence: The report believes that the market's concerns about the impact of Walmart's price investment on profits are excessive, and the company can use
tariff rebates to hedge costs and continue to gain market share..
BOTTOM LINE
The evidence is mixed rather than one-directional. Official operating disclosure: advertising up 36% •Membership fee revenue grew 17.4% globally •Gross profit rate up 6 bps, led by Walmart U.S.
A key counterpoint: Institutional evidence: The report believes that the market's concerns about the impact of Walmart's price investment on profits are excessive, and the company can use tariff rebates to hedge costs and continue to gain market share.. The thesis should be updated only when the measurable watch conditions change.
WHAT WOULD CHANGE THE VIEW
• Check whether the next filing confirms the direction of inventory after Q1 2026 period end.
• Check whether the next filing confirms the direction of operating income after Q1 2026.
• A daily close below the nearest support cluster around $112.19 would weaken the price structure.
• A sustained reclaim of the nearest overhead trend reference around $118.17 would be an initial stabilization signal.
PUBLIC SOURCES
• WMT latest comparable SEC filing (2026-05-29): https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000104169.json
• WALMART INC. filed an 8-K with the SEC — Exhibit 99.1 earnings release (2026-05-21):
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/104169/000010416926000095/earningsreleasefy27q1.htm
• WALMART INC. filed a 10-Q with the SEC (2026-05-29): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/104169/000010416926000102/0000104169-26-000102-index.htm
#Stocks #Fundamentals #TechnicalAnalysis #WMT
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Full text
WMT latest comparable SEC filing
Revenue YoY=7.331727140433189; net income YoY=18.78760864720303; EPS YoY=19.64285714285714
Revenue YoY=7.331727140433189; net income YoY=18.78760864720303; EPS YoY=19.64285714285714
WMT valuation snapshot
trailing_pe=39.596832; forward_pe=34.273254; enterprise_to_ebitda=21.589; price_to_sales=1.2338613
trailing_pe=39.596832; forward_pe=34.273254; enterprise_to_ebitda=21.589; price_to_sales=1.2338613
WMT Revenue
CY2026Q1: 177751000000.0; YoY=7.331727140433189
CY2026Q1: 177751000000.0; YoY=7.331727140433189
WMT Net income
CY2026Q1: 5330000000.0; YoY=18.78760864720303
CY2026Q1: 5330000000.0; YoY=18.78760864720303
WMT Diluted EPS
CY2026Q1: 0.67; YoY=19.64285714285714
CY2026Q1: 0.67; YoY=19.64285714285714
WMT Inventory
CY2026Q1I: 62570000000.0; YoY=8.879878887013417
CY2026Q1I: 62570000000.0; YoY=8.879878887013417
WMT Operating income
CY2026Q1: 7493000000.0; YoY=5.017519271198318
CY2026Q1: 7493000000.0; YoY=5.017519271198318
WMT Current lease liability
CY2026Q1I: 1662000000.0; YoY=7.992202729044834
CY2026Q1I: 1662000000.0; YoY=7.992202729044834
The era of smart e-commerce is coming and will contribute 6% of incremental GMV in the next five years. Amazon and Alibaba are the kings (Morgan Stanley)
Morgan Stanley released an in-depth report, pointing out that AI-driven agents are becoming personal digital shopping assistants. It is expected that more than 20% of e-commerce GMV will be affected in the next five years, bringing about a 6% increase in the total market size, pushing the scale of global e-commerce to reach 7 trillion US dollars in 2030, and the CAGR from 2025 to 2030 will increase from the previous 7% to 9%.
Morgan Stanley released an in-depth report, pointing out that AI-driven agents are becoming personal digital shopping assistants. It is expected that more than 20% of e-commerce GMV will be affected in the next five years, bringing about a 6% increase in the total market size, pushing the scale of global e-commerce to reach 7 trillion US dollars in 2030, and the CAGR from 2025 to 2030 will increase from the previous 7% to 9%.
The market is overly worried about Walmart’s price war, and omni-channel profitability supports the rise in stock prices (Bernstein)
The report believes that the market's concerns about the impact of Walmart's price investment on profits are excessive, and the company can use tariff rebates to hedge costs and continue to gain market share. The unsubsidized EBIT profit margin of core U.S. e-commerce companies is expected to turn positive in FY 2030.
The report believes that the market's concerns about the impact of Walmart's price investment on profits are excessive, and the company can use tariff rebates to hedge costs and continue to gain market share. The unsubsidized EBIT profit margin of core U.S. e-commerce companies is expected to turn positive in FY 2030.
WALMART INC. filed an 8-K with the SEC — Exhibit 99.1 earnings release
EX-99.1 2 earningsreleasefy27q1.htm EX-99.1 Document Walmart reports first quarter results •Revenue growth of 7.3%, up 5.9% in constant currency (cc)1 •Operating income growth of 5.0%, up 5.1% adjusted (cc)1 •eCommerce sales up 26% globally •GAAP EPS of $0.67; Adjusted EPS1 of $0.66 •Company issues guidance for Q2; reiterates outlook for FY27 “ BENTONVILLE, Ark., May 21, 2026 – Walmart Inc. (NASDAQ: WMT) announces first-quarter results with strong growth in revenue, including eCommerce, which grew 26% globally with strength across segments. Walmart U.S. comp sales2 grew 4.1%. Operating income up 5.0%, negatively affected by 250 bps from higher fuel costs in distribution and fulfillment. Looking ahead, the Company issues guidance for the second quarter with net sales expected to grow 4% to 5% and adjusted operating income to grow 7% to 10%, both in constant currency (“cc”)1. Adjusted EPS1 is expected to be $0.72 to $0.74. The Company’s outlook for fiscal 2027 remains unchanged from prior guidance. Our results reflect our continued focus on delivering across the enterprise — better shopping experiences, a broader assortment, and faster delivery. Our teams are adopting innovative tech
EX-99.1 2 earningsreleasefy27q1.htm EX-99.1 Document Walmart reports first quarter results •Revenue growth of 7.3%, up 5.9% in constant currency (cc)1 •Operating income growth of 5.0%, up 5.1% adjusted (cc)1 •eCommerce sales up 26% globally •GAAP EPS of $0.67; Adjusted EPS1 of $0.66 •Company issues guidance for Q2; reiterates outlook for FY27 “ BENTONVILLE, Ark., May 21, 2026 – Walmart Inc. (NASDAQ: WMT) announces first-quarter results with strong growth in revenue, including eCommerce, which grew 26% globally with strength across segments. Walmart U.S. comp sales2 grew 4.1%. Operating income up 5.0%, negatively affected by 250 bps from higher fuel costs in distribution and fulfillment. Looking ahead, the Company issues guidance for the second quarter with net sales expected to grow 4% to 5% and adjusted operating income to grow 7% to 10%, both in constant currency (“cc”)1. Adjusted EPS1 is expected to be $0.72 to $0.74. The Company’s outlook for fiscal 2027 remains unchanged from prior guidance. Our results reflect our continued focus on delivering across the enterprise — better shopping experiences, a broader assortment, and faster delivery. Our teams are adopting innovative technologies, driving productivity through automation, and growing higher-margin commerce solutions. It’s a disciplined approach that’s helping us grow the business and strengthen returns.” John Furner President and CEO, Walmart First Quarter Highlights •Revenue of $177.8 billion, up 7.3%, or 5.9% (cc)1 •Global eCommerce sales grew 26%, led by store-fulfilled pickup & delivery and marketplace •Global advertising business3 up 37%, with strength across segments. Walmart U.S. advertising up 36% •Membership fee revenue grew 17.4% globally •Gross profit rate up 6 bps, led by Walma…