China NEV retail decline narrows to 2% in July as penetration reaches 64%
Goldman Sachs’ NEV weekly report said major Chinese NEV automakers recorded combined orders down 2% week over week and 47% year over year in the 32nd week of 2026, as the market entered the summer off-season.
Goldman Sachs’ NEV weekly report said major Chinese NEV automakers recorded combined orders down 2% week over week and 47% year over year in the 32nd week of 2026, as the market entered the summer off-season.
However, the year-over-year decline in July NEV retail sales narrowed sharply to 2%, from 9% in June. NEV penetration rose to 64%, up from 63% in June, while wholesale sales were strong, increasing 24% year over year.
New models were the core demand driver. HIMA’s weekly orders rose 70% week over week, driven by the MAEXTRO V680 and V800 extended-range electric vehicles. Xiaomi’s orders increased 8% week over week ahead of the company’s planned September launch of the N70 and N90. Li Auto’s orders rose 3% week over week, with a refreshed MEGA scheduled for August and September. Nio’s year-to-date orders were up 44% year over year, making it the most defensive, or resilient, company in the group.
On pricing, the average NEV discount was 7.29% and widened from the prior week. The average internal-combustion-engine vehicle discount was 19.85%. Battery-grade lithium carbonate fell to CNY 143,500 per metric ton, down 2.4% week over week, providing a cost-side buffer for battery and vehicle manufacturers.
In Goldman Sachs’ assessment, the narrowing July NEV retail decline and 64% penetration rate point to improving industry fundamentals. New-model launches at HIMA, Xiaomi and Li Auto are identified as the core demand catalysts, while falling lithium carbonate prices provide a cost buffer. At the same time, the 47% year-over-year decline in weekly orders reflects off-season pressure.
The report identified HIMA, also known as Harmony Intelligent Mobility Alliance, Xiaomi Auto, and Li Auto as beneficiaries of the order trends, with weekly orders up 70%, 8% and 3%, respectively. Nio was also cited positively on the basis of its 44% year-to-date order growth. ICE-related supply chains face pressure as NEV penetration exceeds 64% and ICE discounts reach 19.85%. Brands without new-model support may also be disadvantaged, while lower lithium carbonate prices benefit battery manufacturers on the cost side.
The report listed the following catalysts: Li Auto’s refreshed MEGA and i9 launches in August and September; Xiaomi’s formal September launch of the N70 and N90; refreshed versions of BYD’s Seal 06 and the launch of the Qin Max; XPeng’s VLA2.0 over-the-air update; and September monthly sales data from NEV automakers.
However, the year-over-year decline in July NEV retail sales narrowed sharply to 2%, from 9% in June. NEV penetration rose to 64%, up from 63% in June, while wholesale sales were strong, increasing 24% year over year.
New models were the core demand driver. HIMA’s weekly orders rose 70% week over week, driven by the MAEXTRO V680 and V800 extended-range electric vehicles. Xiaomi’s orders increased 8% week over week ahead of the company’s planned September launch of the N70 and N90. Li Auto’s orders rose 3% week over week, with a refreshed MEGA scheduled for August and September. Nio’s year-to-date orders were up 44% year over year, making it the most defensive, or resilient, company in the group.
On pricing, the average NEV discount was 7.29% and widened from the prior week. The average internal-combustion-engine vehicle discount was 19.85%. Battery-grade lithium carbonate fell to CNY 143,500 per metric ton, down 2.4% week over week, providing a cost-side buffer for battery and vehicle manufacturers.
In Goldman Sachs’ assessment, the narrowing July NEV retail decline and 64% penetration rate point to improving industry fundamentals. New-model launches at HIMA, Xiaomi and Li Auto are identified as the core demand catalysts, while falling lithium carbonate prices provide a cost buffer. At the same time, the 47% year-over-year decline in weekly orders reflects off-season pressure.
The report identified HIMA, also known as Harmony Intelligent Mobility Alliance, Xiaomi Auto, and Li Auto as beneficiaries of the order trends, with weekly orders up 70%, 8% and 3%, respectively. Nio was also cited positively on the basis of its 44% year-to-date order growth. ICE-related supply chains face pressure as NEV penetration exceeds 64% and ICE discounts reach 19.85%. Brands without new-model support may also be disadvantaged, while lower lithium carbonate prices benefit battery manufacturers on the cost side.
The report listed the following catalysts: Li Auto’s refreshed MEGA and i9 launches in August and September; Xiaomi’s formal September launch of the N70 and N90; refreshed versions of BYD’s Seal 06 and the launch of the Qin Max; XPeng’s VLA2.0 over-the-air update; and September monthly sales data from NEV automakers.