Morgan Stanley sees a $600 Space X share price—but only if nearly everything goes right
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas has outlined a striking bull-case scenario for SpaceX (ticker: SPCX), in which the shares could reach $600. That would imply a company valuation of as much as $8 trillion, making SpaceX the world’s most valuable company. Jonas initiated coverage on July 7 with an Overweight rating and a $300 price target, and reiterated that rating this Tuesday, Aug. 11. SpaceX shares are currently trading at about $133. Reaching $600 would require “everything to go right.” SpaceX would have to successfully deploy orbital AI data centers at scale, with costs cut to half their current level. That assumption depends heavily on Starship, the fully reusable heavy-lift rocket the company is developing, achieving frequent and efficient flights. Starlink would also have to expand well beyond its current home-internet business to serve AI-powered robots. The bull case assumes that by 2040, hundreds of millions or even billions of AI-driven robots will be connected to Starlink, with average revenue per user reaching $35. In short, the path from $133 to $600 depends largely on technology that does not yet exist and businesses that have not yet scaled. The supplied source text cuts off mid-sentence after stating that the scenario assumes everything goes as... Wall Street’s broader view is more cautious. Since SpaceX’s IPO, analysts have generally been optimistic about the company. The 32 analysts covering the stock have an average price target of about $227, while the highest target is $800 from Raymond James and the lowest is $75. The supplied text also lists Brian Jesuale and Keith Snyder, CFA, without providing an accompanying statement or clearly explaining their connection to the analysis. Morningstar, by contrast, has been more cautious from the outset. The firm estimates that SpaceX’s core launch and Starlink businesses are worth about $40 per share, with nearly all of the remaining valuation resting on the AI and data-center story. Even Morningstar’s own “moonshot scenario,” which corresponds to $154 per share, is assigned only a 7% probability. Morgan Stanley has also given SpaceX a $75 bear-case scenario, although its base-case expectation is clearly much higher. The author is skeptical of the $600 target. SpaceX is developing impressive technology, but the gap between current reality and Morgan Stanley’s bull case is extremely wide. In a July 24 report, Jonas himself wrote that if the shares were priced at only $100, the market would be assigning no value at all to the company’s AI business. That means most of the upside he sees comes from an AI business that is still generating substantial losses—and whose customers can terminate their lease contracts without penalty with 90 days’ notice. With the technology not yet fully validated and the business model still uncertain, building such a high valuation on the assumption that “everything goes right” is clearly a high-risk bet.
Jonas initiated coverage on July 7 with an Overweight rating and a $300 price target, and reiterated that rating this Tuesday, Aug. 11. SpaceX shares are currently trading at about $133.
Reaching $600 would require “everything to go right.” SpaceX would have to successfully deploy orbital AI data centers at scale, with costs cut to half their current level. That assumption depends heavily on Starship, the fully reusable heavy-lift rocket the company is developing, achieving frequent and efficient flights.
Starlink would also have to expand well beyond its current home-internet business to serve AI-powered robots. The bull case assumes that by 2040, hundreds of millions or even billions of AI-driven robots will be connected to Starlink, with average revenue per user reaching $35.
In short, the path from $133 to $600 depends largely on technology that does not yet exist and businesses that have not yet scaled. The supplied source text cuts off mid-sentence after stating that the scenario assumes everything goes as...
Wall Street’s broader view is more cautious. Since SpaceX’s IPO, analysts have generally been optimistic about the company. The 32 analysts covering the stock have an average price target of about $227, while the highest target is $800 from Raymond James and the lowest is $75.
The supplied text also lists Brian Jesuale and Keith Snyder, CFA, without providing an accompanying statement or clearly explaining their connection to the analysis.
Morningstar, by contrast, has been more cautious from the outset. The firm estimates that SpaceX’s core launch and Starlink businesses are worth about $40 per share, with nearly all of the remaining valuation resting on the AI and data-center story. Even Morningstar’s own “moonshot scenario,” which corresponds to $154 per share, is assigned only a 7% probability.
Morgan Stanley has also given SpaceX a $75 bear-case scenario, although its base-case expectation is clearly much higher.
The author is skeptical of the $600 target. SpaceX is developing impressive technology, but the gap between current reality and Morgan Stanley’s bull case is extremely wide.
In a July 24 report, Jonas himself wrote that if the shares were priced at only $100, the market would be assigning no value at all to the company’s AI business. That means most of the upside he sees comes from an AI business that is still generating substantial losses—and whose customers can terminate their lease contracts without penalty with 90 days’ notice.
With the technology not yet fully validated and the business model still uncertain, building such a high valuation on the assumption that “everything goes right” is clearly a high-risk bet.