Bernstein sees China semiconductor equipment TAM reaching $101 billion by 2028
Bernstein has released a research report on China’s semiconductor equipment market, projecting potential wafer-fab equipment market sizes of $57 billion, $73 billion and $101 billion in 2026, 2027 and 2028, respectively.
Bernstein has released a research report on China’s semiconductor equipment market, projecting potential wafer-fab equipment market sizes of $57 billion, $73 billion and $101 billion in 2026, 2027 and 2028, respectively. The report says the expansion will be driven mainly by accelerating domestic logic and memory capacity growth.
Bernstein expects the share of domestic suppliers to continue rising, with China’s equipment self-sufficiency rate projected to reach 52% by 2028. The firm raised its price targets for NAURA, AMEC and Piotech while maintaining Outperform ratings on the three companies.
The report says demand for advanced logic and DRAM is significantly underestimated. It also says the localization of Huawei’s chip architecture and AI data centers will further support equipment orders.
Bernstein’s bottom line is that China’s semiconductor equipment market is entering a supercycle, with the three-year TAM doubling to $101 billion as domestic substitution accelerates. The report characterizes leading domestic equipment makers as being in a favorable period for simultaneous volume and pricing growth.
The report is positive for NAURA, AMEC, Piotech and China’s semiconductor equipment sector. It says the market already recognizes the domestic-substitution trend, but that a $101 billion TAM and a 52% self-sufficiency target could exceed expectations by a wide margin.
Catalysts identified by Bernstein include the pace of wafer-fab equipment tenders in the second half of the year, the impact of advances in Huawei’s chip architecture on equipment demand, and planned DRAM capacity expansion. Indicators to watch include quarterly equipment order value, the win rate of domestic equipment and wafer-fab capital-expenditure plans.
Bernstein expects the share of domestic suppliers to continue rising, with China’s equipment self-sufficiency rate projected to reach 52% by 2028. The firm raised its price targets for NAURA, AMEC and Piotech while maintaining Outperform ratings on the three companies.
The report says demand for advanced logic and DRAM is significantly underestimated. It also says the localization of Huawei’s chip architecture and AI data centers will further support equipment orders.
Bernstein’s bottom line is that China’s semiconductor equipment market is entering a supercycle, with the three-year TAM doubling to $101 billion as domestic substitution accelerates. The report characterizes leading domestic equipment makers as being in a favorable period for simultaneous volume and pricing growth.
The report is positive for NAURA, AMEC, Piotech and China’s semiconductor equipment sector. It says the market already recognizes the domestic-substitution trend, but that a $101 billion TAM and a 52% self-sufficiency target could exceed expectations by a wide margin.
Catalysts identified by Bernstein include the pace of wafer-fab equipment tenders in the second half of the year, the impact of advances in Huawei’s chip architecture on equipment demand, and planned DRAM capacity expansion. Indicators to watch include quarterly equipment order value, the win rate of domestic equipment and wafer-fab capital-expenditure plans.