Space X Reclaims IPO Price as Retail Investors Record First Net Selling Since Listing
SpaceX closed above its IPO price on Monday after a sharp rebound last week, while retail investors recorded their first net selling since the company went public. Goldman Sachs warned that differences in market valuations are widening and that the stock may remain highly volatile. SpaceX rose 4.23% on Monday to close at $138.74, its first close above the IPO price since July 16 and its highest closing price since July 13. The stock climbed last week despite some investors’ negative assessment of SpaceX’s first earnings report as a public company and concerns about the potential impact of the expiration of IPO lockup restrictions. The stock posted a 23% five-day cumulative gain through Friday. The next key price level, according to industry observers, is $150, the opening price on SpaceX’s first day of trading. The stock has not reached that level since July 10. SpaceX has traded in a wide range since its listing. In June, the stock rose as much as 67% from its $135 IPO price, then gave back all of those gains and fell more than 22% below the IPO price in August. After last week’s earnings release, Goldman Sachs analysts wrote: “In the short term, as factors related to new liquidity affect the stock, price discovery may become even more divided over the coming days, and the stock is likely to remain volatile.” The analysts’ reference to changing liquidity conditions reflects the fact that the number of SpaceX shares available for public trading more than doubled after the first batch of several lockup restrictions expired last week. Further divergence in price discovery means that market participants are moving farther apart in their assessments of the stock’s fair value, making consensus more difficult. Vanda Research, a market-data analytics firm, said retail traders net sold $4.5 million worth of SpaceX stock on August 7. It was the first net selling recorded by retail traders since the company’s June 12 listing. Industry observers say retail investors have played a key role in SpaceX’s public-market trading. During the IPO, SpaceX reserved at least 20% to 30% of its shares for retail buyers, well above the usual 5% to 10% range. Media reports said the SpaceX IPO attracted more than $70 billion in indications of interest from retail investors. Sam North, a market analyst at investment platform eToro, said: “A shift from sustained net buying to selling is rarely caused by a single catalyst. It is usually the result of a combination of profit-taking, position fatigue and investors reassessing the risk-reward balance. Friday’s activity was particularly interesting because retail investors became net sellers as the stock mounted a strong rebound and returned to around its IPO price. This looks more like investors taking profits into the rebound than panic selling.” Jai Malhi, Vanda’s senior equity strategist, estimated that retail traders’ average purchase cost for SpaceX stock since the IPO was $147. He said the selling may reflect an effort to reduce losses at an opportune moment. By comparison, the largest single-day net buying record in SpaceX’s trading history was $144.6 million on June 16. Measured against the stock’s own trading scale, the latest outflow remained modest. On August 5, several days before the selling occurred, the stock plunged 13.6%. Retail investors bought the dip, and their net purchases that day ranked fourth since the June listing. Industry observers said the decline was driven by investor disappointment with SpaceX’s first quarterly earnings report as a public company. The company said in the report that AI spending was producing faster gains, but the market remained concerned about how long Starlink’s profitability could support the company’s AI investment.
SpaceX rose 4.23% on Monday to close at $138.74, its first close above the IPO price since July 16 and its highest closing price since July 13.
The stock climbed last week despite some investors’ negative assessment of SpaceX’s first earnings report as a public company and concerns about the potential impact of the expiration of IPO lockup restrictions. The stock posted a 23% five-day cumulative gain through Friday.
The next key price level, according to industry observers, is $150, the opening price on SpaceX’s first day of trading. The stock has not reached that level since July 10.
SpaceX has traded in a wide range since its listing. In June, the stock rose as much as 67% from its $135 IPO price, then gave back all of those gains and fell more than 22% below the IPO price in August.
After last week’s earnings release, Goldman Sachs analysts wrote: “In the short term, as factors related to new liquidity affect the stock, price discovery may become even more divided over the coming days, and the stock is likely to remain volatile.”
The analysts’ reference to changing liquidity conditions reflects the fact that the number of SpaceX shares available for public trading more than doubled after the first batch of several lockup restrictions expired last week. Further divergence in price discovery means that market participants are moving farther apart in their assessments of the stock’s fair value, making consensus more difficult.
Vanda Research, a market-data analytics firm, said retail traders net sold $4.5 million worth of SpaceX stock on August 7. It was the first net selling recorded by retail traders since the company’s June 12 listing.
Industry observers say retail investors have played a key role in SpaceX’s public-market trading. During the IPO, SpaceX reserved at least 20% to 30% of its shares for retail buyers, well above the usual 5% to 10% range.
Media reports said the SpaceX IPO attracted more than $70 billion in indications of interest from retail investors.
Sam North, a market analyst at investment platform eToro, said: “A shift from sustained net buying to selling is rarely caused by a single catalyst. It is usually the result of a combination of profit-taking, position fatigue and investors reassessing the risk-reward balance. Friday’s activity was particularly interesting because retail investors became net sellers as the stock mounted a strong rebound and returned to around its IPO price. This looks more like investors taking profits into the rebound than panic selling.”
Jai Malhi, Vanda’s senior equity strategist, estimated that retail traders’ average purchase cost for SpaceX stock since the IPO was $147. He said the selling may reflect an effort to reduce losses at an opportune moment.
By comparison, the largest single-day net buying record in SpaceX’s trading history was $144.6 million on June 16. Measured against the stock’s own trading scale, the latest outflow remained modest.
On August 5, several days before the selling occurred, the stock plunged 13.6%. Retail investors bought the dip, and their net purchases that day ranked fourth since the June listing.
Industry observers said the decline was driven by investor disappointment with SpaceX’s first quarterly earnings report as a public company. The company said in the report that AI spending was producing faster gains, but the market remained concerned about how long Starlink’s profitability could support the company’s AI investment.